000 AGXX40 KNHC 150523 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN OCT 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVING EWD TONIGHT OFF NE US COAST WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. RISE CONNECTED TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 50W CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE E COAST TROUGH AND A DEEP CUTOFF NEAR THE AZORES. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MAIN ACTION IS OVER THE GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US IS PRODUCING SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 33 KT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE FL STRAITS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY N TO NE AT 15 KT BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE. CARIB WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT E OF 50W. LATER DAY 1 COLD AIR RAPIDLY EXITS THE LARGE TROUGH AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY TO 60W. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE AT THE MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 STRONG E AND SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NWD TO THE GULF COAST. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 27N W OF 70W AND BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NW CARIB. THE OLD COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SE HIGH AND THE ATLC HIGH NEAR 33N40W. FOR DAY 2 SHORTWAVES IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO EXPLOIT THE WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE ONE OVER THE MID ATLC. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE CUTOFF OVER THE AZORES REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR NE WINDS TO SPREAD OVER THE ATLC W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. GULF WINDS REMAIN A PROBLEM AS PRESSURE REMAINS LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR N OF 19N. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE REMAINS NEAR 30N40W WITH ELY TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH ALONG 55W AS THE MID ATLC RIDGE BULGES NWD ALONG 42W. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE IN THE STRONG WLY FLOW..SOME OF WHICH BRUSH THE NRN BORDER OF THE OUR REGION. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM AND EVEN STRENGTHENS SOME. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WINDS OVER THE GULF FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. LIKEWISE ATLC WINDS DECREASE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL AS ELY TRADES. DAY 4 FINDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDING NE AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH MOVES EWD. MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL US BECOMES MORE SWLY WITH A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL TROUGHING WIDENS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA. THE CUTOFF VORTEX OVER THE AZORES MOVES EWD ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT TO 35W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GULF WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE W OF 95W. CARIB WINDS ABOUT AS LIGHT AS THEY WILL EVER BE UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. ATLC WINDS W OF 55W ABOUT THE SAME. EVEN ELY TRADES MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT S OF A WEAK ATLC RIDGE. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE OVER THE NRN PLAINS GAINS MORE AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE E COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE GULF RIDGE TO BUILD NE ALONG 70W WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING IT'S WAY BACK OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIB. THE ERN ATLC RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 28N30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE TX GULF COAST WITH N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND CARIB REMAIN LIGHT. ATLC WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WITH A MOSTLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG