000 AGXX40 KNHC 120506 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM THU OCT 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT. THE MAIN THRUST IS EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE SRN GULF..CARIB AND CENTRAL ATLC. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT TROPICAL WAVES WERE NOTED NEAR 35W..63W AND 74W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NW GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE ATLC RIDGE 1023 MB WAS NEAR 29N45W WITH A WEAK AXIS WSW TO WRN CUBA. LATER DAY 1 THE LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COVER THE MIDWEST AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD. ALL OTHER FEATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE WEAK GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. WEAK ATLC RIDGE 1018 MB NEAR 30N50W. ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ERN CARIB ENCOUNTERING WLY SHEAR BUT NEEDS WATCHING. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AS WELL AS ATLC W OF 60W. FOR DAY 2 TWO LONGWAVE TROUGHS DOMINATE THE WRN HEMISPHERE WITH ONE OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OTHER OVER THE NE ATLC. IN BETWEEN A RIDGE EXTENDS NWD ALONG 50W WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF AND CARIB. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM OFF THE SE COAST S OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS. WEAK HIGH PRES 1018 MB OVER THE DEEP S WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE GULF. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT NE AND E AS WELL AS ATLC W OF 60W. GFS STILL SHOWS A LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND ELY TRADES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS E OVER NEW ENGLAND PUSHING THE MID ATLC RIDGE TO 45W. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH LIES ALONG 25W WHILE THE GULF RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SRN PORTION AND NW CARIB. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES E TO 65W BACK OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS. WEAK HIGH PRES 1019 MB FOLLOWING THE FRONT MOVES TO NEAR JAX. MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS W OF THE FRONT BECOME SELY W OF 90W. THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW A LITTLE LIFE E OF 55W WITH TRADES MOSTLY MODERATE. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR PUERTO RICO WHILE CARIB WINDS ARE MOSTLY NELY 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE BUT STILL DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 55W. THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 45W WHILE A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE ATLC. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SRN PORTION AND NW CARIB. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WEAK HIGH 1018 MB DRIFTS E WITH NE TO E WINDS W OF 70W TO 20 KT. A WEAK LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W TO NEAR 18N70W. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS E OF 55W WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS BECOME MODERATE OVER THE NW PORTION. GULF WINDS INCREASE AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER SRN TX. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL N OF THE REGION. THE MID ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING ALONG 45W. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC REMAINS NEAR THE AZORES. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NWD WHILE MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS EWD ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT OR WHATS LEFT OF IT MOVES TO NEAR 60W WHILE HANGING BACK TO 20N70W. A 1020 MB HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 32N72W MAINTAINING WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE ATLC W OF 68W. SLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AS PRESSURES REMAIN LOW OVER ERN TX. CARIB WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG