000 AGXX40 KNHC 191738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM TUE SEP 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N67W SW TO THE SE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER E PART THROUGH WED MORNING. WEAK PRES W OF THE TROUGH TO 78W IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WLY FLOW N OF 26N AND LIGHT E-SE TO VARIABLE FLOW S OF 26N. W OF 78W THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SW IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. WINDS HERE ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AS NOTED IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT...THEN REACH A 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LINE WED...AND FROM 31N69W TO S FLORIDA THU THEN BECOME DIFFUSE JUST E OF THE AREA FRI AS HIGH PRES RIDGES S OVER THE W PORTION. MAJOR SWELL EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NE PART OF THE AREA LATE WED AND SPREAD WESTWARD TO ABOUT 73W FRI PER NWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE NE PART. SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY LATE FRI INTO SAT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO MUCH SWELL ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AROUND THE BAHAMAS TO THEY FLORIDA COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL STAY CLOSE TO WORDING OF SEA HEIGHTS AS ADVERTISED IN CURRENT NT3 FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH NOW WEAK ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE AS HURCN HELENE LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 52.9W AT 1500 UTC MOVES WNW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT...ELY TRADES CONTINUE ON THE WEAK SIDE...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT... FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. ONLY A SMALL POCKET OF OF 15-20 KT OVER S PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF ABOUT 14N BETWEEN 70W-78W WAS REVEALED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AS STRONGER ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND CUBA. SEAS HERE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 9 OR 10 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL RUN ABOUT 3-6 FT EXCEPT 2-3 FT NW PART. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURCN HELENE THAT IN PREVIOUS DAYS WERE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE N PART OF THE N ATLC ARE NOW FORECAST TO STAY N OF THE ZONE...HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MAINLY N OF 19N E OF 58W TONIGHT AND PART OF WED TO POSSIBLY NW 20-25 KT DECREASING TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD UP 10 FT THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS TO 6 FT FRI THROUGH SUN. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW THROUGH 28N91W TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 26N96W 1012 MB AND TO INLAND THE NE MEXICAN COAST WILL REACH A PSN FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE LOW RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY IT. THE FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND FROM SW FLORIDA FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WED NIGHT AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING. SW WINDS OF 15 KT OCCURRING N OF 25N E OF THE FRONT WILL DECEASE TO 10-15 KT BY WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL PSN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL BE N-NE 15 KT...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT MAINLY E OF 90W THROUGH WED. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE THROUGH EARLY THU THEN VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND S FRI THROUGH SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WSW ACROSS THE GULF. STRONG SLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE W GULF LATE THU INTO FRI AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE MID-WEST...WITH ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDING SW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO E TEXAS SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE