000 AGXX40 KNHC 110513 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON SEP 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG WESTERLIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES REMAIN N OF 35N TONIGHT BUT S OF 35N THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MID LEVEL RIDGES..ONE NEAR 34N47W AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN BETWEEN THE TWO IS A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS WHICH HRCN FLORENCE IS EXPLOITING AS IT MOVES NWD. FURTHER E A CUTOFF LOW AT MID LEVELS IS LOCATED NEAR 27N37W AND WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE HRCN FLORENCE LOCATED NEAR 31N66W MOVING N AT 12 KT. FLORENCES' LARGE WIND FIELD IS A FACTOR BETWEEN 55W AND 75W N OF 25N WITH SEAS INCREASING NWD TO 20 FT ALONG THE NRN BORDER AT 31N. ELSEWHERE TONIGHT A NEW T.D. SEVEN HAS FORMED NEAR 20N54W AND IS MOVING W AT 5 KT. LATER DAY 1 THE MID ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES E AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES NW TO NEAR 28N38W. THE WESTERLIES DIP SE AND PICK UP FLORENCE N OF 32N WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN A PROBLEM OVER THE ATLC BETWEEN 55W AND 75W N OF 27N BUT ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AS FLORENCE MOVES NNE. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO T.S. STRENGTH LATE DAY 1 AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21N58W. SOME INCREASE IN ELY TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 2 A LARGE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE ALONG 63W WITH FLORENCE EMBEDDED IN IT. A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH ALLOWS THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NNE OVER THE SE US. FURTHER E THE MID ATLC RIDGE HAS FOUND A NEW HOME NEAR 30N27W WHILE THE OLD CUTOFF LOW MOVES NW TO NEAR 30N42W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE PASSAGE OF FLORENCE ALONG A LINE FROM 31N63W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND TRADES WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TX COAST LATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EWD TO THE TN VALLEY DAY 3 LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE N GULF. THIS WEAKENS THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH DRIFTS SWD. THE ERN ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS WITH A CENTER NEAR 28N30W WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NE TO NEAR 32N45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 T.S. SEVEN MOVES TO NEAR 24N61W AND WILL ALSO EXPLOIT A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD AND MOVE NW. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE ESE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING E OF 65W. GFS MODEL SHOWS A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 8N39W. FOR DAY 4 THE WESTERLIES ERODE THE GULF RIDGE FURTHER AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD THE E COAST OF THE US. THE ERN ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS WWD WITH TWO CELLS NOW DOMINATING THE REGION. ONE NEAR 28N34W AND THE OTHER NEAR 28N54W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASING MID HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THUS TRADES INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 20N E OF 75W. THE GULF COLD FRONT REMAINS ALONG 28N AND MOVES E AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DAY 5 FINDS A LARGE SPRAWLING MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING TH ENTIRE REGION. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS TROPICAL ACTIVITY ALONG 30W AND 50W WITH A WEAKER IMPULSE ALONG 80W. IN THE WESTERLIES A NEW LARGE TROUGH SHOWS UP OVER THE ROCKIES DAY 5 WHICH WILL BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND BACK OVER THE NW GULF BEYOND DAY 5. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE T.S. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD TO NEAR 29N62W WITH LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE ATLC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WWD TO 80W WITH AN INCREASE IN ELY TRADES S OF 23N E OF 80W. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 30N E OF 68W...AMZ080 TIL 15Z. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG