000 AGXX40 KNHC 031806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM SUN SEP 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BIG ISSUE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ESTIMATED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 12N38W. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...AS EVIDENCED BY BUOY 41026 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED A 30 KT SW WIND. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND RIDING TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE SW ATLC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT IN THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OR QUIKSCAT DATA. FURTHER OUT E OF 65W...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH OF 31N BUT IS POISED TO STALL AND LIFT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT DAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW IS STILL CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BUT IS NOW MORE ELONGATED INTO THE CARIBBEAN. FORECAST FOR THE 24-36 HOURS HAS GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODERATE E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MON S OF 23N AS A WEAKENING WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. GFS IS SHOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OFF THE GA/SC COASTS BY TUE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSING AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN S WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOW ALONG 68W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND WAVE IS ANALYZED FURTHER E IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 58W APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WILL HAVE TO INCREASE WINDS N OF 15N AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THESE FEATURES MIGRATE THROUGH AND AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH. GFS SHOWS THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE BY MID WEEK HOWEVER OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AS THE GFS SHOWS THE DEVELOPING ATLC LOW CLIPPING THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE BY THU. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT MAY LINGER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH MON. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN BECOME GENERALLY STATIONARY. THE HARD TO DETECT WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC MAY DRIFT INTO THE ERN GULF MON...BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE NRN GULF COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN