000
AGXX40 KNHC 021800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
150 PM SAT SEP 02 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS REMAINS THE 
DOMINANT FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW ATLC THIS 
AFTERNOON. THIS IS AIDING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE 
STRAITS SPAWNED BY CONVERGENT FLOW AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCING TRADES S OF 24N. OTHERWISE LIGHT E TO 
SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY 
N. GFS SHOWS A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SE U.S. ON TUE...CAUSING 
AN INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR THE FL COAST. WILL NOT GO AS STRONG AS 
DEPICTING IN THE MODEL ATTM BUT WILL BUMP UP S TO SE FLOW IN 
THIS AREA BY MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ST LUCIA AND GRENADA IN THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOW SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIRMING THAT 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL A CLOSED LOW. 
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS FURTHER HOWEVER AS IT MOVES INTO AN 
UNFAVORABLE AREA OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE CARIBBEAN. 
NONETHELESS...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
THIS WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SECTIONS OF THE TROPICAL 
N ATLC. THE OTHER ISSUE IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS THE FRESH E 
FLOW IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RESULTING FROM RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AFTER TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE 
AXIS SHIFTS N. LOOKING AHEAD...ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH PERSISTS 
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY AROUND 12N20W AND MOVE IT 
WNW THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC AND TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD 
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE N TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE TO 
BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT.  

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROUGH PERSISTS FROM BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE SW 
GULF. QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING HINTS AT THE PRESENCE OF A 
WEAK WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS WELL ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF 
THE TROUGH. WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS THROUGH 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER 
THE TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE NW THEN CENTRAL 
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN