000 AGXX40 KNHC 310520 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM THU AUG 31 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... ERNESTO MOVED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAS SINCE RE-STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...VERIFIED BY NOAA BUOY 41009 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 43 KT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO N OF 31N DURING THE MORNING JUST AFTER 12Z...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS SHIFT N OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED N OF 28N W OF 78W FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS REPORTED AT BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 ARE CURRENTLY 10 AND 12 FT RESPECTIVELY...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WAVE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL VERSION OF THE NWW3. STRANGELY ENOUGH...THE REGULAR NWW3 GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZING THE CURRENT WAVE FIELD AND HEIGHTS A LITTLE BETTER. THE SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 15 FT BETWEEN THE TWO BUOYS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 17-18 FT ALONG 31N BY MORNING AS ERNESTO MOVES N. THE 12 FT SEAS THEN SHIFT ENTIRELY N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS REALLY QUIET DOWN OVER THE ZONE AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SHIFTING TO N FLORIDA SUN AND MON. TRADES INCREASE SLIGHTLY S OF 25N SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SMALL AREA OF 20+ KT WINDS ARE STILL LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS N ON SUN AND MON...THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX ENOUGH FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY TO 8 FT IN THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND COULD STEADILY BUILD TO 10 FT OR SO BY SAT AS WIND DURATION INCREASES. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MON. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 48W COULD MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI NIGHT ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED NE IN ADVANCE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF 20 KT OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS THE WAVE PASSES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS AND COASTAL C-MAN STATIONS AND BUOYS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING OVER THE E GULF AS T.S. ERNESTO MOVES NE OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF 3-4 FT LEFT ALONG THE SW FLORIDA COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW GULF FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE S COAST OF TEXAS AND SHOULD QUIETLY DRIFT EWD THROUGH FRI INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A REMNANT TROUGH...THEN DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY SAT. THE WIND/SEA FIELD AROUND THE FRONT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH 5-10 KT AND 1-2 FT THE NORM (OCCASIONALLY TO 15 KT IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS). THESE LIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NE/ELY BY SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N W OF 78W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG