000 AGXX40 KNHC 301735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM WED AUG 30 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... ERNESTO IS MOVING NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS WEAKENED TO DEPRESSION STATUS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND NE AND BE OVER ATLC WATERS OFF NE FL TONIGHT. SOME INTENSIFICATION BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THU FOR AREAS N OF 28N. FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS...RIDGE NOW LOCATED OVER 27N 76W WILL BUILD WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY S OF THE RIDGE BY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SHIP OBSERVATION ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 SHOW 15 TO 20 KT FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE S CENTRAL SW CARIBBEAN. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE E OF ERNESTO OVER THE SW ATLC BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N OF COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON SUN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 17N 46W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED DISSIPATE INTO AND OPEN WAVE...THEN GENERALLY DAMPEN OUT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTH FLORIDA RADARS ARE SHOWING RAINBANDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO...OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THESE BANDS SHOW WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT AT MOST. HOWEVER...CMAN STATIONS FROM THE KEYS SUCH AS MOLASSES REEF AND SOMBRERO KEY ARE SHOWING 15M SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...INDICATING STRONG GUSTS COULD STILL BE IMPACTING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS ERNESTO MOVES N AND NE INTO ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER TROUGH ROLLING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NW GULF. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N 28N W OF 78W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN