000
AGXX40 KNHC 251744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 AM FRI AUG 25 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

T.D. FIVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM TONIGHT AS IT MOVE NW. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
MINIMAL HURRICANE MON AND TUE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. WILL LIKELY 
HAVE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE TONIGHT 
AND WILL ADJUST THE REMAINING HEADLINES IN ACCORDANCE TO THE 21Z 
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE WIND AND SEAS SLOWLY COME DOWN ACROSS THE E 
CARIBBEAN AS THE STORM MOVES WWD. ALSO THE STRONG TRADES IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN WILL DECREASE AS THE STORM CUTS OFF THE GRADIENT 
FROM THE ATLC RIDGE.

RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE COMBINED 
WITH LOW PRES OVER TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE SLY FLOW IN THE 
WESTERN GULF STARTING SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN
THE DECREASE MON. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY INDICATES THAT THE FAR 
S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA WILL START TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF 
WHAT IS NOW T.D. FIVE BY TUE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE A 
HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. THE HURRICANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE 
INTO THE S PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WED.

ATLC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 27N AND WILL MOVE TO ALONG 29N SAT 
AND SUN AND 30N MON AND TUE THEN SHIFT S ON WED. MODERATE ELY 
WINDS S OF AROUND 23N WILL EXPAND NWD AS THE TROPICAL 
STORM/HURRICANE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN JUST S OF THE LARGE 
ISLANDS COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE N...COULD BRING WINDS TO 
20 TO 25 KT S OF 24N.

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 13N-18N W OF 65W...AMZ086

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS