000
AGXX40 KNHC 200650
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
250 AM SUN AUG 20 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS 
MORNING AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 28/29N...RESULTING IN FAIRLY 
LIGHT E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A 
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH FROM THE E FL COAST TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SFC WEAK TROUGH 
MIGRATING INTO THE SRN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN 
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH FORMING 
SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE MODELS PRUDENTLY CONTINUE TO BACK 
OFF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL 
LIKELY TO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER SRN 
GULF WATERS STARTING TUE.

SW N ATLC...CURRENTLY SEEING A S WIND AT ST SIMONS ISLAND 
GA...HINTING THE LOW OFF THE GA/FL COAST HAS FINALLY MOVED 
INLAND. SOME HINT OF A REMNANT TROUGH NEAR 65W...BUT THIS IS 
LIKELY DAMPENING OUT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE 
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH GENERALLY 15 KT SE FLOW EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST INTO MON. TRADES PICK UP A LITTLE S OF 23N TUE/WED AS A 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
UP TO 20 KT E FLOW IN THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. EXPECT 
THIS TO PERSIST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN TUE/WED. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE AS WELL OVER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NE OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES BY MIDWEEK AS THE WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
.WARNINGS,

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN