000
AGXX40 KNHC 190626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
225 AM SAT AUG 19 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TX COAST SHOW THE 
WEAK TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF AROUND 96W FROM ROUGHLY SABINE 
PASS TO BAY OF CAMPECHE...PROGRESSING W TOWARD SHORE. ATLC RIDGE 
IS BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL 
GULF...ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW...AND THIS PATTERN WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS 
CONCERNING WHAT WILL HAPPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS RUN IS 
SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE ENTERING THE SRN GULF TUE. NOGAPS AGREES IN 
THE TIMING BUT IS FEATURING A CLOSED LOW HOLDING TOGETHER ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE ENTERING THE S CENTRAL GULF. 
INTERESTINGLY...THIS IS OPPOSITE FROM THE EARLIER RUNS. AT ANY 
RATE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN 
INTO THE S CNTRL GULF BY TUE. THIS WILL AT A MINIMUM INCREASE 
WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

SW N ATLC...A TRPCL WAVE NEAR 58W STARTING TO SPLIT AS IT 
APPROACHES LESSER ANTILLES. QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY 
AFTERNOON SHOWS THE GREATEST AMPLITUDE WITH THIS WAVE IS NE OF 
THE ANTILLES FROM 22N56W TO 28N55W. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO 
ENHANCEMENT FROM AN UPPER LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
AROUND 25N65W. GFS HOLDS THE BREAKAWAY NRN PORTION OF THE WAVE W 
OF 65W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RIDES IT N TO MERGE WITH 1015MB 
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 32N62W. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH INCREASE IN 
WINDS OVER SW ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
MEANWHILE WEAK 1012MB LOW OFF NE FL IS STILL HANGING TOUGH NEAR 
30N80W...WITH SOME CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER. 
HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPERIENCING STRONG SHEAR ON W OF NEARBY UPPER 
LOW. NO FACTOR OTHER THAN LOCAL SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
ONLY 15 KT E WINDS AT MOST. QUIKSCAT PASSES MISS THE CO/VZ 
COASTS HOWEVER...AND IT PLAUSIBLE THERE IS UP TO 20 KT THERE. E 
TO SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER CARIB WATERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH 
MID WEEK IN WAKE OF TRPCL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND IN 
RESPONSE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. AS 
MENTIONED EARLIER...NOGAPS DEVELOPS THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES 
THROUGH THE WRN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GFS GENERALLY 
DOWNPLAYS IT. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY UNTIL THERE'S MORE 
CLARITY IN THE MODELS...AND MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED 
WINDS OVER CNTRL CARIB FOR NOW. 

.WARNINGS,

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN