000 AGXX40 KNHC 170658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM THU AUG 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROUGH IS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF FROM NORTH OF YUCATAN TO THE FL PANHANDLE. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE OF A VERY WEAK CLOSED LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH...BASED ON A 5KT NW WIND ON A SHIP IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. WILL LIKELY SEE AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW MOVING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF CURRENTLY. THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE HAS WARMED...SO NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOOP CURRENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...EVENING QUIKSCAT AND SFC OBS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED OVER LA COAST WITH LIGHT NE TO E FLOW OVER WRN GULF. FOR THE FORECAST...THE TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF TODAY AND FRIDAY...REACHING TX COAST LATE FRI/SAT. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GULF WATERS BEHIND THE TROUGH...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE FLOW. SW N ATLC... QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCANT EVIDENCE OF TROUGH OFF NE FL...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE...TRADES ARE INCREASING TO 20 KT JUST TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA AND S OF 22N. WILL ADD THIS TO HIGH SEAS PRODUCT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED GENERALLY ALONG 28N WITH MODERATE E TO SE FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FRESH TRADES S OF 22N WILL HOLD THROUGH FRI...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANT TROUGH OF A DISSIPATED LOW NEAR 30N61W WILL MOVE E TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI. ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W WILL SPLIT AT THE ISLANDS WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION MAKING NOT PROGGED BY GFS TO MAKE TO 65W UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN WINDS ANTICIPATED ATTM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE AT 78W MOVING W INTO WRN CARIB AT 10 TO 15 KT. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS RELEGATED TO THE N PANAMA COAST S OF 11N. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH E WINDS PERSIST OVER CENTRAL CARIB S OF 18N. FURTHER W...A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS S OF JAMAICA SHOW ONLY MODERATE E WINDS. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE IS BUILDING N OF HISPANIOLA AND THE GRADIENT IS STRONGER FURTHER E. WILL START SW CARIB WATERS AT 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME INCREASE LATER TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS TO NE AND TROPICAL WAVE SLIPS TOWARD CENTAM COAST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TOMORROW IN SW CARIB AS THE WAVE MOVES OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS OVER CNTRL CARIB. E OF THE ANTILLES...GENERALLY MODERATE E FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS DOES NOT SHOW ANY MAJOR CHANGE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT OFFSHORES. NO CHANGES PLANNED. .WARNINGS, ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN