000
AGXX40 KNHC 161718
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM WED AUG 16 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH 
FROM THE LOW N TO AROUND 28N86W. THE NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER 
WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS AND THEREFORE HAS STRONG WINDS WITH 
THE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND APPROACH THE 
TEXAS COAST FRI AND MOVE INLAND FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT.
WILL LIKELY GO WITH THE GFS AND LIGHTER WINDS AS THE NAM SEEMS 
TO START THE LOW TO DEEP.

A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE ATLC AREA FROM 
31N76W TO 28N76W. THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 27N/28N TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRI 
THEN MOVES N FRI NIGHT AND ALONG 29N/30N SAT THROUGH MON. ELY 
TRADES COULD PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 23N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI 
THEN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER 
THE WEEKEND.

QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED CARIBBEAN TRADES 
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE BROUGHT THE WINDS 
INTO THIS RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND. A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 74W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OR WIND.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS RATHER TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.WARNINGS,

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER DGS