000
AGXX40 KNHC 141736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 PM MON AUG 14 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES 1017 MB W CENTRAL GULF ATTM WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT 
OR LESS...EXCEPT SLY 10 TO 15 KT IN RETURN FLOW NEAR SE TX COAST.
ALSO NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 KT BAY OF CAMPECHE PER THIS 
MORNINGS QUIKSCAT IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING 
OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA. WAVE PSN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADJUSTED BUT 
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 21N TODAY AND 
TUE. OVER THE NE GULF THE SITUATION IS MORE COMPLICATED WITH A 
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOBILE AL 
TO CENTRAL FL. MODELS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH 
FEATURES THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SE 
WATERS TUE...THEN DRIFTING W THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED 
AND THU AND LOSING IDENTITY FRI AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM 
ATLC ACROSS N FL. 

SW N ATLC...
SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 25N65W TO STRAITS OF FL. A 
BROAD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 31N56W 28N65W TO A 1011 MB 
FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 29N74W. IN TURN TRAILING A WEAK TROUGH 
SW ACROSS FL ALONG 27N. FRONT SHOULD BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH 
TIME AS THE MAIN ACTION SHIFTS TO AROUND THE AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW THROUGH SAT TOWARD THE 
GA/SC COASTS. THIS LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
CYCLOGENESIS/DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL MENTION NE TO E WINDS OF 
OF 15-20 KT N OF THE LOW AND LIGHTER SW WINDS S OF THE LOW. 
AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...RIDGE 
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WWD AND ALLOW TRADES TO PICK UP TO 15-20 KT
NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...   
1126 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. THIS GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO 20-25 KT WITH A FURTHER RELAXATION
OF GRADIENT BY THU INTO SAT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W HAS BEEN 
MOVING W 12 KT. LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG WAVE EARLIER HAS 
DISSIPATED. WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AND 
SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A WAVE IN ERN ATLC ESTIMATED ALONG 26W 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 15 KT AND INTO ERN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE 
FRI AND SAT. 

.WARNINGS...

ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB