000 AGXX40 KNHC 281647 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM FRI JUL 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE SE COAST CONUS EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A CYCLONE AT 29N83W THEN SW TO ANOTHER CYCLONE AT 26N93W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NE TX AND SW LA BORDER HAS A RIDGE NE AND W TN...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE UNSTABLE AND BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE SE. IN ANY EVENT THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES SW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...BUT CONFUSED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WITH 2 UPPER CYCLONES ALOFT. AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED E OF THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 34N73W HAS AN ELONGATED RIDGE SW TO THE E FL COAST AT 27N80W. A TUTT EXTENDS THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 33N60W...27N74W AND 17N94W. THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W BASICALLY SEPARATING THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING STATIONARY...THROUGH MID WEEK...OVER E TX FROM THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SAT. THE ATLC ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SW TO NEAR THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE SAT...THEN DRIFT W TO NEAR HISPANIOLA SUN..THEN SHIFT N TO NEAR BERMUDA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SE...E OF THE RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE W OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE BAHAMAS. AT THE LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES E TO W ALONG 29N ACROSS N FL INTO SRN AL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO ALONG 28N SUN AND MON...AND SHIFT THEN BACK N TO ALONG 29N TUE. SLY 15-20 KT WINDS SEAS TO 8 FT SW OF RIDGE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE SAT. OVER THE CARIBBEAN...ELY WINDS IN 20-25 KT RANGE IN GRADIENT S OF ATLC RIDGE AND IN WAKE OF TROPICAL WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE W 15 KT THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ONLY FLARING OVER THE E PAC ATTM...BUT EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER NE WIND SHEAR...MENTIONED ABOVE...IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS MOVING UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE IS MOVING W UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TUTT. THUS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND ALSO OVER COLOMBIA AS THE WAVE EXTENDS NEARLY 20 DEG FROM N TO S. WILL MENTION WIND SHIFT AND CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED W TO ALONG 60W LATE THIS MORNING...BUT AFTER THE 1630Z RELEASE OF TEXT PRODUCTS...BASED ON BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR IN THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE ONLY EXTENDS TO NEAR 19N. I WILL ADJUST FORECAST WAVE PSN ON AFTERNOON PACKAGE. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR 8N41W DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PERHAPS A ITCZ DISTURBANCE AND ANALYZED AS AN EMBEDDED TROUGH. IT IS MOVING WSW WITH CONVECTION DECREASING WITH TIME. EXPECT THIS ITCZ EMBEDDED TROUGH TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE S AMERICAN COAST IN 48-60 HRS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 15 KT...SHOULD REACH 55W EARLY MON NIGHT AND E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON