000
AGXX40 KNHC 221821
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
240 PM SAT JUL 22 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAK 
TROUGH DENT SE INTO NW CARIBBEAN.  IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NE24N79W IS PRODUCING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT OVER S FLORIDA PENINSULA SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING 
CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY DAYTIME HEATING.  LITTLE MOVEMENT 
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS AS FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN 
PENINSULA CONTINUES AND GFS SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF UPPER  
FEATURES.  CYCLONIC VORTEX THEN DISSIPATES AND REPLACED BY UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH LIFTS NE.  RIDGE EXTEND ACROSS FL FROM ATLC 
INTO GULF OF MEXICO THRU THU.  

AT THE SURFACE...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND 
ACROSS N FL ALONG 29N INTO E GULF OF MEXICO.  RIDGE SHIFT S TO 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FORCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT 
BACK TO NRN WATERS BY LATE TUE AS TROUGH LIFTS NE.  

BAY OF CAMPECHE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH BUILDING OF SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER GULF AND TROPICAL WAVE TO THE WEST WITH STRONG SE 
WIND INCREASING MON THRU WED.  TSTMS HAVE FLARED IN SW BAY OF 
CAMPECHE W OF WAVE AXIS LIKELY TO LAST THRU TONIGHT. 
     
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W MOVE W AT 15 KT LIKELY STRENGTHEN LOW 
PRES OVER COLOMBIA...DOWN TO 1005 ACCORDING TO GFS.  ALTHOUGH 
NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED OF PRES GETTING SO LOW FORECAST MAINTAINS 
GALE STRENGTH WINDS ALONG COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA EARLY MON THRU 
TUE.  GRADIENT MAINTAINS VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS REMAINDER 
CARIBBEAN.          

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W MOVING W 12 KT WILL REACH ENTER TRPCL 
ATLC TONIGHT...INTO ERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND INTO WRN 
CARIBBEAN THU.  

.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING LATE SUN INTO TUE...AMZ084...AMZ086. 

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES