000
AGXX40 KNHC 160450
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM SUN JUL 16 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TWO LARGE UPPER RIDGES DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN TONIGHT. ONE A 
DRY ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 40W AND THE OTHER A 
MOISTURE LADEN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN BETWEEN 
THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO 
RIDGE CENTERS. THE WEAKNESS IS BETWEEN 55W AND 75W TONIGHT. EVEN 
AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES WANTS TO GET IN THE ACT BY 
BULGING NWD BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVES WERE ALONG 42W..66W AND 85W WITH THE ATLC RIDGE NOSING WSW 
FROM MID OCEAN TO 27N80W.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TWO MAJOR UPPER RIDGES. A 
MODERATE SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL DROP INTO THE WEAKNESS 
ALONG 70W DAY 1 AND AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES MOVES 
TO 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE 
OFF THE SE COAST WITH SW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 30N W OF 70W. 
OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CARIB E OF 80W AND OVER THE 
ATLC S OF 22N. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES PARKS ITSELF ALONG 
70W..PINCHED BETWEEN THE TWO MASSIVE RIDGES. THE ERN RIDGE 
APPEARS TO BE MAKING A MOVE WWD TO NEAR 35N45W. ON THE SURFACE 
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MID OCEAN 
EXTENDING WSW TO S FL. WIND PATTERN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME EXCEPT 
FOR MORE SELY BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM..THE ATLC UPPER 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD TO NEAR 35N55W AND FINALLY 
PINCHES THE SHORTWAVE NE FROM IT'S FORMER 70W POSITION. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 3 ATLC WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN A 1028 MB 
HIGH OVER MID OCEAN. EVEN CARIB WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE. A WEAK RIDGE LIES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH LIGHT 
WINDS DAY 3. 

DAY 4 FINDS THE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
WHILE THE MID ATLC UPPER RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 34N57W. STILL A 
WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE CENTERS BETWEEN 65W AND 
80W WITH A NEW WEAKNESS FURTHER E BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ON THE 
SURFACE THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SW ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE W OF 60W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. GULF WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT AND CARIB WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 65W AND 75W.

FOR DAY 5 THREE UPPER ANTICYCLONES REMAIN DISTINCT. ONE OVER  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS..THE SECOND ONE NEAR 33N60W AND THE THIRD 
OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 25N40W. WEAKNESSES PERSIST BETWEEN 65W 
AND 80W..45W AND 55W AND OVER THE EXTREME ERN ATLC E OF 30W. ON 
THE SURFACE A SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID OCEAN RIDGE 1026 MB REMAINS 
NEAR 32N45W BUT THE RIDGE AXIS WSW REMAINS WEAK DUE TO THE 
AFFECT OF THE UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE SW ATLC. ONLY THE CARIB 
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W HAS ANY WIND PROBLEM AND THATS DUE TO THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE PERSISTENT 
COLOMBIAN LOW..OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT E TO 
SE WINDS. 

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG