000
AGXX40 KNHC 051716
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 PM WED JUL 05 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA...MOVING SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EVIDENT 
ON THE MOIST DIFFLUENT EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS AND TO THE EAST TO 73W. MEANWHILE A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 
31N 55W TO THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE 
SURFACE...MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS...EXTENDING GENERALLY ALONG 
31N. GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW  STALLING AND OPENING UP OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST GULF OVER THROUGH THU...AS A TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE 
EASTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA 
COAST ON SAT... WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS VEERING MORE 
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT THROUGH SAT HOWEVER...AND LEAVING THE 
FRONT TO WEAKEN AND ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON 
SUN. 

CARIBBEAN...SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH DATA 
FROM BUOY 42058 SHOW 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. MEANWHILE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 75W IS DIFFICULT TO 
DISCERN IN DATA AND IS LIKELY DAMPENING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 
RIDGE TO BUILD AND THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A LITTLE MORE OVER 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GFS SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF CO/VZ COASTS 
TONIGHT AND THU...SHIFTING W THRU FRI. WILL HOLD ON TO GALE 
WARNING AS A RESULT FOR TONIGHT AND THU. GFS LOWERS WINDS TO 
JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FRI HOWEVER...BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATER RUNS 
AND NOT DROP GALE ATTM.

GULF OF MEXICO...LIGHT E TO SE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THU...WITH MODERATE 10 TO 15 KT FLOW OVER THE 
WRN GULF. THE GFS BRINGS THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT TROPICAL 
WAVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF ON FRI...AND INCREASES WINDS TO 20 
KT N OF THE YUCATAN. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE WAVE 
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK CURRENTLY. AT ANY RATE...WINDS WILL INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY BY SUN AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W TO 76W THU AND 
FRI...AMZ084 AND AMZ086.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN