000
AGXX40 KNHC 041656
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
100 PM TUE JUL 04 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. UPPER 
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
N BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING 
SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IS FORECAST TO LINGER 
ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

ATLC...GFS FORECASTING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT 
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM S OF BERMUDA 
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS TO REMAIN 
AROUND 15 KT...BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES.
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THAT A FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI/SAT. WINDS LIGHT BEHIND 
THE FRONT...BUT MAY BECOME MODERATE SW N OF 30N JUST EAST OF
IT.

FOR THE CARIBBEAN...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WINDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. AS FORECAST...WINDS DID DECREASE 
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING AS SHOWN BY RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS. WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WED AS 
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES AND ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS.  BIG 
QUESTION REMAINS...WILL WINDS REACH GALE FORCE?  THE 30 METER 
06Z GFS WINDS INDICATED AREA OF GALES BY WED NIGHT. THE 12Z RUN 
HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT STILL SHOWS A VERY LARGE AREA OF
30 KT AND WILL KEEP GALE IN FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT. BY FRI 
WINDS MAY DECREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE TYPICAL NW COLOMBIA COAST. WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE 
WEEKEND BUT MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT SUN. NWW3 SHOWS MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO ABOUT 16 FT....WHICH SEEMS QUITE 
REASONABLE.

IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK 
TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW OVER E TEXAS IS PRODUCING MODERATE 
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 
TEXAS COAST. GFS CONTINUES THIS TREND THROUGH THU. TROUGH 
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS DECREASING.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN