000
AGXX40 KNHC 011731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM SAT JUL 01 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THIS MORNING'S HIGH-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 
GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE S AND SW CARIBBEAN WITH ONE 
UNCONTAMINATED 40 KT BARB. ADDITIONALLY...BUOY 42058 REPORTED A 
PEAK 1 MIN WIND OF 33 KT NEAR 0900 UTC.  CONSIDERING THE MUCH 
LESS IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT...THIS EVENT 
APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING SOME DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS. SINCE 
THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS CANNOT BE ACCURATELY FORECAST...THE 
GALE WARNING IS HELD THROUGH SUN.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL 
DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON AS 
LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENING.   GIVEN 
THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...I SUSPECT LARGE SWELLS ARE 
OCCURRING NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHEST WINDS.  HOWEVER...WITHOUT 
MUCH IN THE WAY OF OBS...I'M RELUCTANT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 
NWW3 WHICH IS CURRENTLY VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 42058.  NEXT WEATHER 
MAKER IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 45W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN AND E CARIBBEAN MON IN NO 
UNCERTAIN TERMS. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAS BEEN 
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  
GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL...WINDS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP 
TO 20-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN THROUGH TUE.  SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE SO APPROPRIATE WORDING 
HAS BEEN ADDED.  

SW N ATLC...
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PARKED ALONG OR 
JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE 
LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE EXTREME N PART OF THE AREA...MODERATE 
ELY FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION...AND STRONG ELY 
FLOW TO 20 KT OVER THE S WATERS AND ADJACENT BAHAMA ISLANDS. 
HIGHEST SEAS...ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 7 FT...WILL OCCUR GENERALLY 
S OF 25N.  THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO SE PORTION OF AREA 
TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED...AND FLORIDA BY THU. 
SETUP LOOKS TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND WAVE TUE AND 
WED.  MARINE INTEREST IN OR AROUND THE BAHAMAS NEXT WEEK SHOULD 
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS POTENTIAL 
TO PRODUCE ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS AND STORMY WEATHER.  IT 
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH 
FORECASTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AT LONGER RANGES.  
DEVIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL...UPWARDS OF A DAY...ARE 
POSSIBLE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
STILL NO SIGNS OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING WITHIN THE REGION OF 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE W GULF WITH LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWING 
MOSTLY ELY FLOW.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN 
KEEP SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUN OR MON.  ATLC 
RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER N FLORIDA AND THE S 
UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE 
IN WINDS WITH 10 TO 15 KT COVERING MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. 
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WILL 
PUSH INTO THE SE GULF TONIGHT PRODUCING WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT MAINLY S OF 25N E OF 85W.  SEAS COULD QUICKLY BUILD TO 
A ROUGH 7 OR 8 FT MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS BUCK 
THE GULF STREAM.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AMZ084 AND 
AMZ086.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RHOME