000 AGXX40 KNHC 290646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM THU JUN 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-3 FT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE GULF. ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS MAINLY S OF ABOUT 25N OVER THE SW GULF AND OVER THE EXTREME S PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONGER ELY WINDS MAY IMPACT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SE GULF SUN AND MON BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS S FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT TO ABOUT 5 FT OVER THE SW AND E GULF SUN AND MON WITH POSSIBLE 6 FT SEAS IN AN E SWELL OVER STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON. NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...BUT MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS FOR LATTER PERIODS OF SUN AND MON IN THE EVENT WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND NEAR STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCREASE FOR LONGER DURATION AS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE BRUSHES THOSE AREAS. SW N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N69W SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT AND SUN AND TO NEAR 31N BY MON. S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2230Z LAST NIGHT REVEALED A TROUGH FEATURE THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 23N68W. WINDS VEER AND BACK AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH BUT HIGHEST SPEEDS NOTED IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA IS 15 KT. GFS PROGS THIS TROUGH WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT NEAR 73W. A MORE NOTICEABLE FEATURE IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE REACHES TO NEAR 22N. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT 2230Z PASS SHOWED A SURGE OF 20 KT E WINDS APPROACHING 60W S OF 22N. EXPECT ELY WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE S WATERS E OF 75W TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD. GFS...NAM AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS ALL AGREE THAT A SURGE OF E-SE 20 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD S OF 25N THROUGH SUN SHIFTING TO W OF 78W AND E PART OF STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY MON. NWW3 FORECAST SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THESE VALUES FOR THIS PACKAGE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2334Z LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 70W WITH A COUPLE OF 30 KT CONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS ALONG 75W...AND A COUPLE OF NON- CONTAMINATED VECTORS ALSO ALONG 75W. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT OF 25 KT NE WINDS FOR E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W WITH MENTION OF 30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE...BUT KEEP SIMILAR WORDING THERE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE SW AND E PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH MAX VALUES TO 13 FT THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 3 FT HIGHER THAN NWW3 VALUES WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS SAT AND SUN DECREASING MON OVER THE SW PART AND E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES...THEN WEAKENS SOME MON. ALSO...WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALREADY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY ALONG 62W. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE MON. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA NEAR 46W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE FRI AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON. THIS WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER INCREASE IN ELY WINDS AS NOTED IN THE GFS 10M WIND FIELD AS ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDS E-W N OF THE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN SEAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD TO THE 9-13 FT RANGE...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER... SUN AND MON OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE