000 AGXX40 KNHC 281732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM WED JUN 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TWO SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTS...PBBV AND PECX WITH E WINDS OF 25 AND 20 KT RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT THE 30 KT N VECTOR CONTAMINATED WINDS FROM THE 1144Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE. STILL APPEARS...HOWEVER...TO BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH 20 TO 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. REPORTS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SEAS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE...BUT HIGHEST NEAR 12 FT. BOTH NOGAPS AND GFS NWW3 ARE A LITTLE ON THE LOW SIDE IN THIS REGION. THE 12Z GFS NOW ALIGNS MORE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND HAS BACKED OFF ON JACKING THE WINDS BACK UP TO 30 KT UNTIL SUN. WILL STAY WITH 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY...FOR NOW. MODELS SENDING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO HOW THE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL AFFECT THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE SEEM TO BE 20 KT...BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...MARCHING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT...THEN OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN ON SUN. AGAIN...IF WE SEE SEAS AND WIND ENHANCEMENT W OF 65W...IT WILL BE DURING THE TROPICAL WAVES TRANSIT THIS WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER W PORTION...EXTENDING FROM 31N73W SW THROUGH 27N80W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. RIDGE MAINTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLIES INCREASING S OF 25N SAT AND SUN AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS OVER THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING MON. BOTH NWW3 SUGGEST AN INCREASE TO 8 FT OVER THE SE BAHAMAS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 20 KT EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY FRI. TROUGH WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ON THU AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AND LIFT N OUT OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND THE NAM INDICATE A HINT OF SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AS IT TRACKS NEAR BERMUDA. WILL DISCOUNT THIS PROGNOSIS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND SEAS 6 FT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH MON. GULF OF MEXICO... BENIGN CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD RETURN AT THIS POINT AND GENERALLY MAINTAIN THROUGH MON. WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL SHORES SHOULD BE LIGHTER...HOWEVER...RUNNING 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS SHOULD BE 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTING ON SUNDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 6 FT AS THE EAST WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER ROBERTS