000
AGXX40 KNHC 260616
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
215 AM MON JUN 26 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NW/SE ORIENTED AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS 
NWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT MERGES 
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE U.S.  THIS SETUP CONTINUES 
TO PRODUCE A FLAT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS YIELDING 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  LATEST ROUND OF OBS SHOWING SEAS OF 1 
TO 2 FT.  THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
MOVING SLOWLY NWD REACHING GEORGIA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE 
THEN LIFTING WELL N OF AREA DURING THE DAY TUE.  THIS WILL ALLOW 
THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE 
N GULF WATERS TUE THROUGH FRI. UNDER THIS PATTERN...LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY N OF 25N WITH MODERATE ELY 
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT S OF 25N.  HIGHEST SEAS...ON THE ORDER OF 4 
TO 6 FT...WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WED THROUGH FRI WHERE ELY FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST. 
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED. 

SW N ATLANTIC...
PERSISTENT AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES NEAR FLORIDA IS RELUCTANT TO 
EXIT THE AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMAS NWD 
OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.  THE LOW PRES WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD EVENTUALLY TAKING THE SYSTEM WELL N 
OF THE AREA LATE TUE.  UNTIL SUCH TIME...A TROUGH WILL LIKELY 
TRAIL SWD ACROSS FLORIDA PRODUCING AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT 
OVER THE W ATLC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK 
WESTWARD. AS SUCH...STRONG SLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 
KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IN 
LINE WITH BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS.  BY WED...RIDGE IS BACK 
IN CONTROL WITH DECREASING WINDS/SEAS.  A TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 
HISPANIOLA NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
SLOWLY NW POSSIBLY COMPLICATING THE FORECAST WIND FIELD.  THE 
GFS CONTINUES TO SPIN UP SMALL CIRCULATIONS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY 
WHICH IS PRODUCING AN UNREALISTIC LOOKING WIND FIELD.  
SIMILARLY...THE NWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE OFF.  THE 
CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES A TYPICAL N/S OF RIDGE SETUP IN THE 
LATER PERIODS. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
EXITING W ATLC LOW PRES TODAY AND TUE WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO REBUILD N OF AREA.  ACCORDINGLY...TRADES WILL BE ON THE 
INCREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND REALLY START CRANKING BY LATE 
TUE INTO WED. LATEST GFS SHOWS CONDITIONS VERY NEAR GALE FORCE 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AND WED.  FACTORING IN THE 
TYPICAL LOW BIAS IN BOTH THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE 
WIND FIELD IN THESE SITUATIONS...GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE 
AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.  HIGHEST SEAS 
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 13 FT. OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS A TROPICAL 
WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 40W...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED THEN INTO INTO THE E CARIBBEAN 
LATE THU AND FRI. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING ATLC RIDGE...THE WAVE 
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG ELY TRADES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 
KT.  CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS NICELY AND ONLY MINOR 
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RHOME