000
AGXX40 KNHC 221655
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
100 PM THU JUN 22 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXTENDS NORTHEAST TOWARD 
BERMUDA.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM 
COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO DRIFT WEST AND SLOWLY 
WEAKEN. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH FLORIDA MONDAY.  BY 
TUESDAY A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH 
WILL MAINLY AFFECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION 
NEAR THE TROUGH.

SURFACE...
THE MODEL DOES THE SAME THING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IT DID 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING THE 
TROUGH TO MOVE WEST BUT THE TROUGH HAS BEEN STATIONARY SO THERE 
IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FORECAST WILL BE ACCURATE.  
WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH MAINLY TO 
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL HAVE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AREA WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND UP TO 25 KNOTS NEAR 
THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL