000 AGXX40 KNHC 220527 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM THU JUN 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI THEN WEAKEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE E OR NE GULF WATERS BY THE WEEKEND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON THE TIMING...INTENSITY...AND OVERALL EXTENT OF THIS TROF/LOW PRES. FOR NOW...MODEL CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY GOOD AND KEEPS THE GULF ZONES ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRES GRADIENT TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF MODERATE ELY FLOW THROUGH END OF WEEK THEN TREND MORE TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS WIND REGIME...EXPECT SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 FT SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO 1-2 FT BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE W ATLC TROF/LOW PRES AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. E GULF AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES HAVE HIGHEST SAT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC... MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEWD TO JUST W OF BERMUDA. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION BUT NEARLY ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORM AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS DRIFT THE LOW PRES AREA WESTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA REACHING THE SUNSHINE STATE IN THE LATE FRI AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE GFS WHICH INDICATES A LOW WILL FORM FARTHER E THAN THE OTHER MODELS THEN MOVES THE LOW MORE NW TOWARDS THE SE U.S. COAST SUN OR MON. GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ON THE ALTERNATE WESTWARD SOLUTION...THE GFS IS REJECTED AND A MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING GLOBAL MODELS WILL BE USED. THIS MEANS DRIFTING THE TROUGH WEST THU THEN INTRODUCING A WEAK LOW PRES LATE FRI AND SAT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS ON EAST SIDE WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. IN LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISCUSSION OF THE GFS SOLUTION...FORECAST SEAS WILL DEVIATE SOMEWHAT FROM NWW3 GUIDANCE AND RELY MORE ON THE FNMOC WAVE MODEL. MARINE INTEREST IN AND AROUND THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A LOW FORMS...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER AND NE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST BAHAMA ISLANDS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TRADES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS N/S DELINEATION IN WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED BY DAY 4 OR 5. VIGOROUS WAVE FROM YESTERDAY IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS UNTIL IT EXITS AREA BY EARLY FRI. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 55W DEMONSTRATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS MUCH LESS CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS WAVE. STILL...EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS STRONG TRADES TO 25 KT E OF THE MAIN AXIS. THUS...WILL KEEP TRADES TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE W EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER SW N ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN CURRENT GFS AND NWW3 GIVEN STRONGER WINDS SHOWN E OF WAVE NEAR 55W BY QUIKSCAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME