000 AGXX40 KNHC 201906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM TUE JUN 20 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST INLAND THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TSTMS FOR TONIGHT PERIOD AND INTO EARLY WED MORNING FOR WATERS MAINLY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SW N ATLC... AREA MOSTLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES INTO THE AREA FROM 31N77W SW TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND TO NEAR W CUBA. A SMALL 90 NM WIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N80W NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 28N72W. LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 24N72W 25.5N74W TO 27N76W. MODELS TEND TO DRIFT THIS TROUGH TO THE NNW EXCEPT FOR THE EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS WHICH TRACK IT FURTHER WEST TOWARDS GENERAL AREA OF FLORIDA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE E EDGE OF THE AREA SUN WHILE NAM 10M WINDS FORMS A LOW NEAR THE E BAHAMAS WED AND TRACKS IT NORTHWARD ALONG 73W/74W TO NEAR 30N FRI AND THEN NW SAT AND SUN. WILL KEEP FEATURE AS TROUGH THROUGH THIS FORECAST ...AND WAIT FOR NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO LOW FORMATION AND FUTURE TRACK SCENARIO(S). RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THU THROUGH SUN. SHIP AND BUOY DATA THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM AROUND 10 UTC THIS MORNING HAVE ALL BEEN SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15 KT) ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ...AND ALSO THE SE PART S OF 21.5N E OF 70W WHERE WINDS ARE ELY TO 20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG CARIBBEAN WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 70W S OF 19N IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. SURGE OF E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS FOLLOWS THE WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. IN ADDITION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM NEAR 10 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED SIMILAR WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS COVERING MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND WED AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI MOVING W OF THE AREA SAT. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF E-SE 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHING THE 45W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE PRESENT ONE NEAR 70W SHOULD HELP KEEP TRADES AT LIGHT-MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND OVER MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLC RIDGE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WINDS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE