000
AGXX40 KNHC 200528
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM TUE JUN 20 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE W N-ATLC AND E CONUS WITH AN 
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES S TO NEAR 
33N85W THEN SW THROUGH A WEAK UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N96W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO ANOTHER 
WEAK CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TO THE E..THE REMNANTS OF 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIES FROM BERMUDA ACROSS SE FLORIDA INTO THE 
NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE 
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N TO A BROAD CREST ALONG 27N 
BETWEEN 72W AND 55W.  THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE E AND 
MERGE THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONTINUE E OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN 
EXTEND NE FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR BERMUDA FROM WED 
THROUGH SAT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN W PORTION AS ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE 
STATIONARY NEAR 30N55W...DRIFTING W WITH TIME. THESE SYSTEMS 
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...GENERALLY E OF 
THE TWO TROUGH AXIS...AND UPPER THE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES IS OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MEANDER E AND W ALONG 31N 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH OVER NE TX WILL WILL DISSIPATE 
BY WED WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG 
THE TX COAST FRI AND SAT. A WEAK TROUGH LIES NE TO SW ACROSS THE 
NW BAHAMAS AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF 27N ALONG 75W BY MID 
WEEK...THEN PERSIST IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE E OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 7N66W TO 20N66W AT 06Z. CONVECTION 
WILL LIKELY DECREASE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...BUT ELY 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND 15-20 KT IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THROUGH SAT THEN WEAKEN ON SUN.     

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON