000 AGXX40 KNHC 110614 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM SUN JUN 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATE... HAVE DECIDED TO DROP VOLCANIC ASH WARNING FOR E CARIBBEAN ZONE. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM SAB INDICATED THAT THERE WERE ONLY LIGHT ASH EMISSIONS DURING THE DAY AND THE ASH PLUME WAS ONLY 12 NM WIDE 127 NM W OF MONTSERRAT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ARE LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 NM OVER A SIGNIFICANT AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE CENTER OF T.D. ONE HAS LIFTED N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE DAY SO THE T.S. WARNING FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND AT BUOY 42056 IS ABOUT 20 KT AT THIS TIME...BUT AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE BUOY IS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS...WHICH ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE E BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. WINDS IN THIS AREA ARE S/SE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE...THEN LIKELY REMAIN STEADY UNTIL MON EVENING AS T.D. ONE LIFTS NE INTO THE ATLC. ELSEWHERE...THE ATLC RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND HAS INCREASED THE TRADES INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THAT ZONE MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...AND SEAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO BUILD TO 11 FT WITH THE ADDITION OF AN ELY SWELL. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE AND MOVES TO NEAR 70W BY THU AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL EASE UP NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...BUT THEN WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE (WINDS 20-25 KT SEAS TO 10 FT). ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MAY APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE THU...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS BEFORE INTRODUCING ASSOCIATED WEATHER. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG 27N IS PRODUCING WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE S OF 25N AND N OF 28N. THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT N A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT UNTIL T.D. ONE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST ON MON. WINDS BECOME SLY 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST MON AFTERNOON THEN STEADILY INCREASE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS T.D. ONE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST BEGINS TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY TUE MORNING BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM LOCAL TIME...THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. LATEST WIND PROBABILITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD SHIFT INTO THE AREA AS SOON AS MON NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUE...SO I WILL TENTATIVELY PLAN ON GOING WITH THIS FOR THE FORECAST CONTINGENT ON THE 5 AM ADVISORY. THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHIFTS E OVER THE NRN PART OF THE AREA ON WED AND THU AS THE T.S. LIFTS NE INTO THE ATLC. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA LATE WED INTO THU BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST NHC ADVISORY PLACED THE CENTER OF T.D. ONE NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 11 PM EDT ON A HEADING N THEN NE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE T.S. WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE GULF WILL BE CONTINUED N OF 24N E OF 88W AND WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL LATE MON GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK. I WILL ALSO HAVE TO PUT UP A T.S. WARNING FOR THE E GULF N OF 25N SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT (DURING THE SECOND PERIOD). AS USUAL...THESE WARNINGS ARE CONTINGENT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDS OVER THE NW/SW GULF WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT SEAS COULD STILL BUILD TO 6 FT OR SO DUE TO ELY SWELL. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA IT IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE A TROUGH FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE AND WED...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND ALMOST VARIABLE BY TUE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 24N E OF 88W...GMZ084 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N...GMZ086. FORECASTER BERG