000 AGXX40 KNHC 101812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM SAT JUN 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NW CARIBBEAN GETS THE HONOR OF BREWING THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORECAST TO TURN INTO FIRST TROPICAL STORM AS IT HEADS N-NW INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. CYCLONE FOLLOWS WEAKNESS IN PRES PATTERN ALONG 85-86W AS IT GATHERS STRENGTH FROM WARM GULF WATERS. STRONG SW SHEAR PREVENTS CYCLONE FROM GATHERING MORE STEAM. ONCE IN MID ERN GULF...MODELS DIFFER ON PATH TO FOLLOW. FROM TURNING DUE WEST TO SPLITTING IN TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS...SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY OR TURN NE ACROSS N FLORIDA...THERE IS A MODEL WITH THAT SOLUTION. MOST SUITABLE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TO FOLLOW THE ATLC RIDGE PERIPHERY GIVING WEIGHT TO THIS LAST SOLUTION WHICH IS BACKED BY GFS AND GFDL MODELS. IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINS HEALTHY FLOW OF TRADES WHICH SUPPLY WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO OUR NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EVEN BRINGING IT FROM ACROSS SRN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W CONTINUES ITS STEADY PATH WITH BRISK WINDS WITHIN 120-150 NM E OF AXIS. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...MT. SOUFRIERE IN MONTSERRAT HAS TOSSED AN ENORMOUS CLOUD OF ASH INTO THE AIR WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS N OF 16N E OF 66W BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH OF NESDIS IN WASHINGTON DC. GULF OF MEXICO... WRN HALF OF GULF...W OF 90W...SHOULD NOT TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL STORM ONE...UNLESS THE UKMET SOLUTION BECOMES A REALITY. IF NOT...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS IN THE NWRN GULF AND 10-15 IN THE SW CORNER SHOULD NOT RAISE SEAS ABOVE 4 FT. ON THE OTHER SIDE...E OF 90W...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD START EARLY TONIGHT S OF 23N E OF 86W AS T.S. ONE APPROACHES. SLOW N-NW MOVEMENT SHIFTS NE AFTER CROSSING 25N BRINGING IT CLOSER TO BIG BEND AREA IN N FLORIDA. WIND FIELD IS STRONGEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE E OF STROM WHICH WOULD COVER ENTIRE E GULF AND PART OF MIDDLE GULF ZONE. STORM MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA MON NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING ON TUE AND WED...POSSIBLY WITH TRAILING TROUGH STRETCHING NE/SW ACROSS ERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 27N NOW THAT THE WEAK TROUGH HAS DEPARTING FROM OUR FORECAST WATERS TO THE NE. WINDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL E-SE 10-15KT. MAIN CONCERN IS TRACK OF TROPICAL STROM ONE...IF IT IN FACT TURN NE AND CROSSES N FLORIDA INTO ATLC. TROPICAL STROM CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT EXTREME NW CORNER OF BASIN MON FOR SHORT TIME AS SYSTEM RACES NE. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION EASTWARD FROM FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR PATIO AHEAD OF TIME. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STROM WARNING...N OF 20N W OF 80W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 86W...GMZ084...GMZ086 FORECASTER WALLY BARNES