000
AGXX40 KNHC 040705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
300 AM SUN JUN 04 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT ACROSS 
ALMOST ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR A POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS FROM 
25N-28N BTN 90W-86W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE THROUGH THU AS THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. A WEAK 
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR VENICE FLORIDA SW TO 
25N90W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THROUGH TODAY AND DISSIPATE LATE 
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT...ALTHOUGH RELATED 
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS RANGE FROM 10-15 KT OVER THE E GULF 
NEAR THE FRONT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
AT THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE 
TO 10-15 KT TUE AND WED THEN BECOME LIGHT SLY OVER THE W GULF
N OF 25N...LIGHT ELY S OF 25N AND VARIABLE REMAINDER OF GULF
ON THU AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN AND 
CENTRAL GULF.

FOR THE MOST PART NWW3 SEAS LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE AREA FROM 25N-28N BTN 90W-86W WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 1-2 FT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. HOWEVER THESE SHOULD DECREASE
TO VERY NEAR NWW3 VALUES WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS 
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD AND DISSIPATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE ALONG 25N CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
MOVES E MON AND TUE. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
REACH A PSN FROM 31N79W TO 29N80W LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING 
OUT EARLY MON MORNING. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RUNNING
15 KT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF 15-20 KT WELL E OF THE
FRONT N OF 29N BTN 75W-72W...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

TROUGH OVER W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO NE HONDURAS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK LOW PRES JUST E OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS MODEL STILL INDICATES THAT SOME FORM OF LOW PRES 
TRACKS ENE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NE PART OF THE SW N 
ATLC ZONE TUE AND WED. DURING PREVIOUS DAYS...I THOUGHT THIS 
MIGHT BE RELATED TO CARIBBEAN LOW/TROUGH BUT NOW IT APPEARS MORE 
CERTAIN THAT IT IS A SEPARATE FEATURE AND GFS IS NOT AS STRONG 
WITH WINDS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO WILL BACK DOWN ON INTRODUCING 
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SW N ATLC WATERS FOR 
TUE AND WED...UNLESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS INDICATE OTHERWISE. REST 
OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MORE OF A TROUGH FEATURE THAT GRADUALLY 
MOVES EWD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA FROM ABOUT 
TUE THROUGH THU. WINDS SHOULD MAX OUT TO 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH
WED AND THU AS MOST MODELS INDICATE.

AS FOR THE CARIBBEAN LOW/TROUGH WILL GO WITH GENERAL TREND OF 
MODELS OF TRACKING IT WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THU WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. WILL 
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY E OF THE TROUGH TO 15-20 KT FOR MON 
THROUGH WED AS PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOUND E OF THE TROUGH MAY 
AID IN KEEPING WIND FIELD HERE HIGHER THAN OTHER AREAS NEAR THE 
TROUGH. 

15-20 KT TRADES CONFINED TO S OF 15N E OF 75W INCLUDING THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. EXPECT TRADES TO EXPAND IN AREAL 
COVERAGE THROUGH THU OF NEXT WEEK AS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS E-W
ROUGHLY ALONG 25N AND A COUPLE LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THESE WATERS. REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
TROPICAL N ATLC CAN EXPECTED TRADES IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 FT THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE
...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE