000 AGXX40 KNHC 211755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM SUN MAY 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TUE. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD WITH INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE GULF BEGINNING MON. APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS RESULTING IN THE GFS FORECAST OF A WEAK LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN MON NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN E-SE WINDS N OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL DISCOUNT THIS AND OPT FOR A MORE BENIGN SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NWD OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT...LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. OUTLOOK...LIGHT E TO SE WINDS CONT INTO FRI WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF E OF 92W. SW N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA DRIFTING NWWD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD AND BE NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AND ACROSS S FLORIDA TUE WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN MSTR ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODERATE SWLY WINDS OVER THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFT NE OF THE AREA MON AS A FRONT STALLS JUST N OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO SLIDE SWD TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT DROPS SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 28N75W BY LATE WED AND FROM 23N65W TO 27N75W LATE THU AND DISSIPATES FRI. WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT WED AND VEERS TO NE 10-15 KT THU AND FRI...EXCEPT TO THE SW AT 10-15 KT FAR NW PORTION LATE THU INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MONITORING MONTSERRAT FOR ADDITIONAL ASH EMISSIONS AND WILL MODIFY PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...VOLCANIC ASH HAS DISPERSED FROM YESTERDAYS RATHER IMPRESSIVE BELCH WITH OVERALL VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. LATEST QSCAT INDICATES THAT THE TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED...THEN DECREASE A LITTLE THU AND FRI AS SW N ATLC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB