000
AGXX40 KNHC 161721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
120 PM TUE MAY 16 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW WITH DIMINISHING 
WINDS/SEAS ON WED.  THE WEATHER LOOKS PRETTY QUIET OVER THE AREA AS 
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE 
WEEK.  SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN ARE POSSIBLE 
IN ADDITION TO NEAR THE SE COAST OF TEXAS.. OTHERWISE RATHER QUIET 
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY UNTIL SUN WHEN MOISTURE COULD 
RETURN.. IRONICALLY AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT BECOMING A 
WARM FRONT AND HEADING NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG WINDS N OF VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA RELAX SOME TOMORROW AS A COLD 
FRONT PENETRATES THE NW CARIBBEAN... CAUSING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
W ATLC TO RETREAT EASTWARD.  THIS EFFECT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED 
AFTER THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND HEADS NW AS A WEAK WARM 
FRONT/TROUGH ON FRI.  HIGH PRESSURE RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND N 
OF THE REGION CAUSING STRONG WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SAVE 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE GFS INDICATING WINDS NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE 
NW OF COLOMBIA IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED REGIONS JUST OFFSHORE.  THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
WITH LIMITED EFFECTS MOSTLY S OF 13N IN THE E CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IN THE NW ATLC IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS A WAVE FORMS 
ON FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE 
OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE/LOW PRESSURE AREA HEADS NE.  WINDS/SEA SHOULD 
BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE 
POSSIBLE IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE GFS MAY 
STILL BE OVERDOING THE LOW BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT 
FROM OTHER MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE 
WED AS ANY LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES FAR OUT OF THE AREA AND UPPER 
SUPPORT WEAKENS.  FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP STATIONARY LATE FRI 
AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE REGION FOR SAT INTO SUN.  A 
NARROW STRIP OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS IS POSSIBLE IN 
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT.  TRADES ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN E OF 
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUN WITH THE HIGH REBUILDING IN FROM THE NE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BLAKE