000 AGXX40 KNHC 111722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM THU MAY 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SOME EARLIER BUOYS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WERE REPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE WINDS BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BY LATE FRI WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH HEADS EASTWARD ON SAT BRINGLY SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT COLD ENTERS THE GULF ON SUN. FOR NOW WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO BE REDUCED FROM THE CURRENT FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS QUITE FAR FROM THE AREA WITH A SMALL PRESSURE GRADIENT. DEEP E COAST TROUGH FOR MAY HAS LED THE GFS/ECMWF TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTS CONTINUING TO MAKE THEIR WAY THRU THE AREA RATHER THAN STALLING.. WHICH WILL BE PREFERRED AS SUMMER APPROACHES. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED IS IN THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY LOW ON THE COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE NW GULF BY TUE THAT CAUSES A LOW TO SPIN UP... THOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATION/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL BLEND THOSE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHTER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES ARE BASICALLY THE RULE WITH AN ABSENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. TWO AREAS OF WINDS WILL BECOME ENHANCED AT TIMES... NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEAS NEAR THE N COAST OF S AMERICA E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. BY SUN WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADES RETURNING ON MON...EVEN BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AVERAGE ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NE. WINDS LOOK QUITE WEAK IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE PERIOD EXCEPT NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NO CHANGES TO THE RECENT FORECAST AS THE GFS/ECWMF KEEP ANY STRONG WINDS WELL N OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL DIE OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE ON SAT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS. SW WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ON SUN IN THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF WINDS SHOULD BE LARGER WITH THE SECOND FRONT THAN THE FIRST FRONT DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE E COAST OF THE USA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY OF A SECONDARY LOW FORMING AT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TUE AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.. THOUGH THE ECMWF DEVELOPS IT FARTHER NW IN THE GULF AND IS STRONGER. WILL KEEP THE WINDS/SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON TUE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER BLAKE