000
AGXX40 KNHC 070515
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SRN AND NRN BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE 
ACTIVE TONIGHT. SRN BRANCH HAS MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES WHILE THE 
NRN BRANCH HAS LARGER FEATURES WITH MORE COLD AIR. ON THE 
SURFACE AN OLD TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARDS CONTINUES. WEAK FRONTS 
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST ONLY TO DISSIPATE FOR LACK OF 
COLD AIR AND THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS WEAK 
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 60W MOVING E 20 KT. A SECOND ONE OVER 
THE TN VALLEY DAY 1 MOVING E. A WEAK LOW OVER AL WITH A EQUALLY 
WEAK FRONT DROPPING OFF THE TX GULF COAST DAY 1 WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 33N61W RIDGES BACK TO THE NW 
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ERN GULF. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE. 

LITTLE INTERACTIION BETWEEN THE NRN BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES DAY 2 AS MOST COLD AIR REMAINS WELL N OF 40N. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST DAY 2. OLD SHORTWAVE 
MOVING E OVER MID ATLC NEAR 55W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER MID 
ATLC ABOUT TO GIVE IT UP DAY 2. WEAK RIDGE FROM 30N60W SW TO FL 
STRAITS WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N..EXCEPT FOR FRONT MOVING OFF 
SE COAST WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT N OF 30N W OF 70W. 
CARIB WINDS ABOUT NORMAL 15 TO 20 KT..WHILE GULF MOSTLY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

GFS MODEL SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER MID ATLC STUCK UNDER AN OPEN 
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 53W. ALSO SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF MID 
ATLC CLOSES OFF DAY 3 WILL LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 65W E OF 
FL. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING FROM GULF NWD INTO OH VALLEY DAY 3. 
PESKY SURFACE TROUGH HANGS ANOTHER DAY OVER MID ATLC WITH LIGHT 
WINDS. WEAK ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO N COAST OF CUBA 
DAY 3. RETURN FLOW INCREASES DAY 3 AS PRESSURES LOWER OVER SRN 
PLAINS. CARIB WINDS ABOUT THE SAME. 

ONE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO 45W WHILE LARGE CLOSED OFF TROUGH 
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO ALONG 65W. STRONG ZONAL FLOW SETS UP W OF 
80W WITH NEW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER NRN PLAINS. ON THE 
SURFACE THE FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE SE COAST DAY 2 CONTINUES SE 
TO 31N65W BACK TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB 
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W TO 20 
KT DAY 4.

CLOSED UPPER TROUGH SENDS SOME ENERGY SEWD DAY 5 INTO OUR REGION 
ALONG 60W. SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER MIDWEST WITH STRONG NWLY 
FLOW W OF 90W COULD DESTABLIZE OUR REGION OFF THE SE COAST 
BEYOND THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. OLD COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATING 
AS IT MOVES EWD TO 65W. NEW COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER SRN STATES 
DAY 5 WILL INCREASE SW WINDS TO 20 KT OVER NE GULF. CARIB WINDS 
DECREASE AS RIDGE OVER ATLC WATERS WEAKENS DAY 5.

WARNINGS...
NONE.  

FORECASTER RRG