000 AGXX40 KNHC 230448 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AN OPEN RIDGE AXIS WAS ALONG 70W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING ALONG 80W. ON THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONT WAS OVER MID OCEAN AND WEAKENING WHILE A SECOND COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE NE GULF. A 1026 MB POLAR HIGH WAS NEAR 33N67W. DAY 1 FINDS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO 75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT. THE OLD POLAR HIGH WEAKENS TO 1023 MB NEAR 33N63W AND SUPPORTS 15 KT WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. STRONG WESTERLIES STILL PREVAIL THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE SRN BRANCH AND NRN BRANCH REMAIN ACTIVE. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TO NEAR 65W DAY 2. NEW STRONG SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING SE OVER THE NE US AND A SECOND ONE ENTERING THE NRN PLAINS. THE OLD POLAR AIRMASS MOVES E TO NEAR 33N58W DAY 2. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WASHES OUT N OF THE BAHAMAS. GFS SHOWS SOME SORT OF TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 90W BUT ONLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO MID OCEAN ALONG 55W DAY 3 IN A GENERALLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH DROPS SE OVER THE GREATLAKES AND IS DESTINED TO AFFECT OUR REGION OF THE SW ATLC. THE OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES E TO NEAR 32N50W WITH A WEAK RIDGE BACK ALONG 27N INTO THE ERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SE OVER TX DAY 3 WITH RETURN FLOW ABOUT THE SAME. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN DAY 3 AS THE ATLC HIGH MOVES E. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES E TO 50W DAY 4 THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREATLAKES IMPORTS ADDITIONAL COLD AIR AND LOWERS HEIGHTS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS HELPS THE TX COLD FRONT TO MOVE EWD OFF THE SE COAST BUT HANGS BACK OVER THE NW GULF DAY 4. THE OLD POLAR HIGH IS NOW OVER MID OCEAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N TO FL WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE DAY 4. AS EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING OVER THE SW ATLC AS UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR SPILLS SWD. THIS STRENGTHENS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE AND PUSHES IT OFF THE FL COAST DAY 5 WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. A 1022 MB POLAR HIGH FOLLOWS OVER THE DEEP S. THE ATLC RIDGE RECEDES EWD MAINLY E OF 70W AND CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG