000 AGXX40 KNHC 140450 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI APR 14 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES MANAGING TO WORK IT'S WAY FAR ENOUGH S TO INFLUENCE THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA/CUBA AREA. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE ESE AND ARE AFFECTING THE CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ERN ATLC ALSO. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 21N68W. DAY 1 FINDS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS STRONG WESTERLIES SLIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT DAY 1 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE N. ON THE SURFACE THE WEAK LOW CENTER 1009 MB MOVES TO NEAR 23N66W ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. NW CARIB WINDS REMAIN NE TO 20 KT DAY 1 AS WELL AS ATLC WINDS W OF 70W. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TO 65W A NEW STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 2. THIS WILL LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES AND INCREASE THE SLY FLOW W OF 90W TO 20 KT. THE WEAK ATLC LOW MOVES NE TO NEAR 27N53W ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL TROUGH WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY AREA WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE WESTERLIES REMAINING IN A STRONG ZONAL PATTERN DAY 3 WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. A LARGE VORTEX OVER THE MARITIMES BEGINS TO INFLUENCE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W DAY 3. THIS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF 60W N OF 28N WITH WLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. OTHERWISE THE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME DAY 3. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. THE ATLC LOW MOVES TO NEAR 29N47W WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. DAY 4 FINDS THE LARGE VORTEX BECOMING A BIGGER PLAYER OVER THE ATLC W OF 50W. THE OLD PLAINS SHORTWAVE GETS INTERCEPTED IN THE CIRCULATION AND HEADS SE HELPING LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FURTHER W OF 50W. THIS WILL INSURE A CONTINUANCE OF SW TO W WINDS N OF 28N AT 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT DAY 4. RETURN FLOW REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME W OF 90W AND REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED IN THE LARGE VORTEX CIRCULATION DAY 5 A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 50W. THE PROMINENT UPPER PATTERN OVER WRN ATLC ALLOWS COLD AIR TO MOVE SWD DAY 5 OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING TO 30N. GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25 KT PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE ALONG 20N EXTENDING INTO THE ERN GULF DAY 5. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W DECREASES SOME AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SE OVER CENTRAL TX. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY E TO SE LIGHT TO MODERATE DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG