000 AGXX40 KNHC 121656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N65W ACROSS THE S CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. WEAK LOW HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM NEAR 23N72W. SURFACE DATA FROM THE SE BAHAMAS AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE THAT THE LOW MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CLOSED. IN ANY CASE THERE IS A VERY SHARP TROUGH IN THE AREA WITH STRONG NE WINDS TO THE NW OF THE LOW. MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED 25-30 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA NW OF THE FRONT. WINDS LESS NEAR THE NE FLORIDA COAST BUT LARGE NELY SWELLS AFFECT ALL AREAS NW OF THE FRONT. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NWW3 ON SEAS...HIGHEST LIKELY NEAR THE N BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS TO 13 FT LIKELY. GFS HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THE FRONTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT VERY WELL. INITIALLY IT MOVED FRONT BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS SE FLORIDA. NOW GFS IS DEVELOPING LOW THAT TRACKS ENE AND DRAGS THE FRONT BACK SE IN THE LONGER RANGE. BELIEVE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ARE CAUSING THE LOW IN THE GFS AND THE FLIP/FLOP ON ITS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER..SOME CREDIBILITY NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO THE GFS WITH CURRENT UPPER TROUGH/LOW CUTTING OFF OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY AID IN LOW DEVELOPMENT. VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT HELP MUCH. SINCE THE FEATURES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK THEY ARE DAMPENED OUT IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. BELIEVE I WILL CARRY WEAK LOW ENE ALONG FRONT THROUGH FRI. BUT WILL NOT MOVE THE FRONT MUCH AT ALL. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE ATLC. STRONGER NE WINDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRI. BY SAT RIDGE FROM THE GULF BUILDS EWD ALONG 26N. COUPLE OF NEW SYSTEMS DEVELOP OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE EXTEND PERIOD. THEY WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SW-W WINDS ACROSS THE N PORTIONS LATE SAT THROUGH MON. WINDS OVER THE S HALF EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO... FETCH OF STRONG NE WINDS EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF WITH THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT. ELSEWHERE MODERATE NE-E WINDS COVER ALL BUT THE NW GULF. ELY SWELLS MAKING THEIR WAY W ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT AT SOME OF THE NW GULF BUOYS. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS UNTIL FRI. HIGH PRES RIDGE TO SETTLE OVER THE N GULF WITH WINDS DECREASING MOST OTHER AREAS. BY SAT HIGH PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF. SLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME MODERATE OVER THE NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD SUN... THEN DECREASE MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED 15-20 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF 70W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THESE AREAS TONIGHT/THU WITH 20 KT WINDS CONFINED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. MODERATE NE WINDS ARE NOW BLEEDING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRI...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN