000
AGXX40 KNHC 051714
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 PM EDT WED APR 05 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA ACROSS THE 
EXTREME N BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SE TONIGHT...BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS ON THU. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HIGH PRES 
IS IN CONTROL. HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNTIED STATES WILL MOVE 
EAST INTO THE ATLC THU. NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE 
TEXAS COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT. FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE ATLC WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N76W ACROSS 
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN...THEN FROM 
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON 
THE INITIAL TIMING OF THIS FRONT. 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE 
WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. ALL THE MODELS NOW SWEEP 
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. WILL 
HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE RUNS AS IT IS GETTING LATE IN THE YEAR FOR 
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH S FLORIDA.

GULF OF MEXICO....
SLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. WINDS 
SPREAD EASTWARD THU. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE 25 KT WINDS OVER 
THE OFFSHORE AREA...BUT IT IS CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN FORECAST. 
WILL RE-EVALUATE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. NWW3 MAY BE A LITTLE 
SLOW IN BUILDING SEAS. 15-20 KT WINDS SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT/SAT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 20 KT 
INITIALLY...THEN WEAKENING LATER SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
AREA SUN/MON WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS.

ATLC...
WINDS RATHER LIGHT OVER THE ATLC THROUGH THU NIGHT. RIDGE 
STRENGTHENS FRI WITH WINDS BECOMING MODERATE OVER THE S 
AND NW PORTIONS. 20-25 KT WINDS POSSIBLE NW PART SAT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WINDS SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT 
NIGHT/SUN. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT. BY MONDAY...MODERATE NE WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH LIGHT 
E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF IT.

CARIBBEAN...
20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. LIGHT NE-E WINDS ELSEWHERE. SE WINDS 
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION ALONG THE COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA THU NIGHT-SAT.  WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY 
BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS. TRADES OVER THE S 
AND E CARIBBEAN INCREASE IN BOTH SPEED AND AREAL COVERAGE BY THE 
WEEKEND.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN