000
AGXX40 KNHC 030453
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT MON APR 03 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ENERGY FROM SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR 
REGION TONIGHT. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE ALONG 60W WILL 
PHASE IN WITH AN OLD UPPER TROUGH TO THE SE ALONG 53W. UPPER 
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF NE ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD 
TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK 1014 MB LOW WAS NEAR 22N54W AND 
STATIONARY. HIGH PRES 1024 MB WAS NEAR 33N52W WITH AN AXIS BACK 
TO S FL. 

UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 55W WHILE A 
NEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO THE SE US. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 1 A WEAK LOW 1014 MB WILL CONTINUE NEAR 22N52W. THE ATLC 
RIDGE WILL HAVE A CENTER 1022 MB NEAR 32N47W WITH AN AXIS BACK 
TO CENTRAL FL. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. 

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN DAY 2 WITH THE MID OCEAN UPPER 
TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY E TO 45W. MORE ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE 
ERN US UPPER TROUGH. THIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE OFF 
THE SE COAST DAY 2. SOME WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BEHIND IT. MID ATLC LOW PRESSURE SPUTTERS 
PROBABLY BECOMING A TROUGH NEAR 22N50W. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 29N E 
OF 70W. CARIB ONLY AREA WITH MODERATE WINDS BESIDES WITH FRONT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US EXTENDING S INTO 
THE CARIB DAY 3. MID ATLC UPPER TROUGH MOVES E TO ERN ATLC WHILE 
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 50W. COLD FRONT WEAKENS DAY 3 AS IT 
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO 31N70W BACK TO CENTRAL FL. WEAK HIGH 
FOLLOWING FRONT ALONG 85W WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING SOME W OF 
95W. ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N48W AT 1021 MB WITH AN AXIS 
BACK TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE.

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ROLLS ON EWD DAY 4 TO ALONG 65W. MOST OF 
THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CONFINED N OF AREA THUS MOSTLY DRY 
AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR REGION. UPPER RIDGE MOVES E TO ALONG 45W 
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF NWD TO THE 
GREAT LAKES.  ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 31N62W BACK 
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DAY 4 WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. ATLC RIDGE 
CENTERED NEAR 30N48W AT 1021 MB. SECOND HIGH 1018 MB MOVES TO 
CENTRAL FL DAY 4 WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING SOME W OF 90W. 
CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

SYMMETRICAL LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHS DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN 
DAY 5. ONE OVER THE ERN ATLC..THE SECOND ONE ALONG 60W AND THE 
THIRD DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING AXIS 
ALONG 43W AND 78W. ON THE SURFACE MAP DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES EWD TO NEAR 55W WHILE THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT 
STRENGTHENS SOME TO 1020 MB. GULF CONTINUES WITH GUSTY SLY WINDS 
20 KT W OF 85W WHILE ELY TRADES PICK UP SOME OVER THE CARIB TO 
20 KT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG