000 AGXX40 KNHC 011814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NE OF AREA. A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE DRIFTING W AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER AROUND THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND HIGH PRES PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 KT S OF 25N E OF 67W INCLUDING WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT IN NE SWELL. EXCEPT THESE CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SWELLS TO 8 FT CAN LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE PART SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT (SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT) AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS AND SOME OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND STATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED A SWATH OF 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA. WIND DIRECTION OS PRIMARILY FROM THE NE-E EXCEPT SE-S N OF 25N W OF 78W. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT N OF 25N W OF 78W AND 4-7 FT ACROSS REMINDER OF THE AREA WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NWW3 VALUES. WINDS OVER THE NW PART ARE SWLY 10-15 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN REACHING A LINE FROM 31N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUN AFTERNOON ...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WLY BEHIND IT BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SLY SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ONE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND REACH A PSN FROM 31N73W TO 28N75W TUE NIGHT AND WEAKENING TO S FLORIDA GOING INTO WED MORNING. FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM ABOUT 31N64W TO NEAR SE BAHAMAS THU. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH NLY OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THU N OF 25N AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE FRONT S OF 25N AS WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 088). TROUGH FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO 22N57W WILL SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N STRENGTHENS. NE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO JUST ALONG AND N OF 22N TONIGHT AND SUN ...THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. N-NE SWELLS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE SEE N OF 21N THROUGH MON SUBSIDING TO 8 FT TUE...TO 7 FT WED AND TO 6 FT THU. ACROSS REMAINDER OF TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (087) EXPECT LIGHT ELY TRADES THROUGH THU. SEAS TO 8 FT HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO S OF 11N BY WED AND THU IN NE SWELL. CARIBBEAN... TRADES HAVE WEAKENED MOST ZONES OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC GRADUALLY SHIFTS E MON THROUGH THU... TRADES OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER SW PORTION OF THE SEA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH THU AS THE ATLC HIGH RETREATS E IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BY THU THE GFS ONLY INDICATES NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SW PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA (ZONE 084). GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N GULF CONTINUES THROUGH MON THEN BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NE TO SW TUE AND WED AND A HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE NE GULF THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE PART LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF EARLY WED. E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT CURRENTLY SEEN S OF 25N W OF 90W WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WHERE EVEN THE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONSISTS OF SEAS UP TO 4 FT. SEAS OVER THE FAR W GULF ARE AXING OUT AT 5 FT. THESE VALUES CORRESPOND WELL WITH INITIAL NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES...AND SO WILL FOLLOW NWW3 CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SEA HEIGHTS PRIMARILY OVER THE FAR W AND SW GULF LATE WED INTO THU IN INCREASING SLY FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 011814 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO NE OF AREA. A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE DRIFTING W AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL LINGER AROUND THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND HIGH PRES PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 KT S OF 25N E OF 67W INCLUDING WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT IN NE SWELL. EXCEPT THESE CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL SWELLS TO 8 FT CAN LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SE PART SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT (SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT) AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS AND SOME OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND STATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED A SWATH OF 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA. WIND DIRECTION IS PRIMARILY FROM THE NE-E EXCEPT SE-S N OF 25N W OF 78W. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT N OF 25N W OF 78W AND 4-7 FT ACROSS REMINDER OF THE AREA WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NWW3 VALUES. WINDS OVER THE NW PART ARE SWLY 10-15 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN REACHING A LINE FROM 31N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUN AFTERNOON ...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT SLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WLY BEHIND IT BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SLY SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ONE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND REACH A PSN FROM 31N73W TO 28N75W TUE NIGHT AND WEAKENING TO S FLORIDA GOING INTO WED MORNING. FRONT WILL WEAKEN FROM ABOUT 31N64W TO NEAR SE BAHAMAS THU. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH NLY OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THU N OF 25N AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE NEAR THE FRONT S OF 25N AS WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 088). TROUGH FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO 22N57W WILL SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES TO THE N STRENGTHENS. NE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO JUST ALONG AND N OF 22N TONIGHT AND SUN ...THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. N-NE SWELLS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE SEE N OF 21N THROUGH MON SUBSIDING TO 8 FT TUE...TO 7 FT WED AND TO 6 FT THU. ACROSS REMAINDER OF TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (087) EXPECT LIGHT ELY TRADES THROUGH THU. SEAS TO 8 FT HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO S OF 11N BY WED AND THU IN NE SWELL. CARIBBEAN... TRADES HAVE WEAKENED MOST ZONES OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC GRADUALLY SHIFTS E MON THROUGH THU... TRADES OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER SW PORTION OF THE SEA AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASING TREND THROUGH THU AS THE ATLC HIGH RETREATS E IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BY THU THE GFS ONLY INDICATES NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SW PART NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA (ZONE 084). GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE GULF WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N GULF CONTINUES THROUGH MON THEN BECOMES ALIGNED MORE NE TO SW TUE AND WED AND A HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE NE GULF THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE PART LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF EARLY WED. E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT CURRENTLY SEEN S OF 25N W OF 90W WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SUN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WHERE EVEN THE WATERS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONSISTS OF SEAS UP TO 4 FT. SEAS OVER THE FAR W GULF ARE AXING OUT AT 5 FT. THESE VALUES CORRESPOND WELL WITH INITIAL NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES...AND SO WILL FOLLOW NWW3 CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SEA HEIGHTS PRIMARILY OVER THE FAR W AND SW GULF LATE WED INTO THU IN INCREASING SLY FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE