000 AGXX40 KNHC 311854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK TROUGH...FORMERLY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS INTO THE EXTREME FAR SE PART OF THE AREA FROM 19N65W TO PUERTO RICO. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1016 MB LOW E OF THE AREA NEAR 23N60W AS ANALYZED THIS MORNING AT 1200 UTC. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E OF AREA THROUGH SAT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND HIGH PRES PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT GENERALLY S OF 25N E OF 70W INCLUDING WATERS NEAR PUERTO RICO. SEAS REMAIN ON THE HIGH WITHIN THIS AREA IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. N OF 25N E OF 70W NE-E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS 5-6 FT ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ARE BEING REPORTED BY SHIP AND BUOY DATA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE SW N ATLC AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE N ATLC INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK...AND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN...WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE E PART...WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS TO 8 FT STILL LINGERING OVER THE EXTREME SE PART THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON. WINDS OVER THE NW PART WILL BECOME SWLY 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN DEPICTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EXTREME NW PART OF THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN REACHING A LINE FROM 31N79W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUN...BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM ABOUT 31N76W TO NEAR VERO BEACH SUN. ANOTHER COLD...CURRENTLY DEPICTED STRONGER THAN THE ONE JUST MENTIONED...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND REACH A PSN FROM 31N76W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE TUE NIGHT AND FROM 31N68W TO 28N75W THEN STATIONARY TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE WED AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PRECEDED THE FRONT THROUGH WED WITH NLY OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG AND N OF 31N WED. TROUGH FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO 22N60W WILL SLOWLY MOVE E OF AREA THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N STRENGTHENS. NE 20-25 KT WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO JUST ALONG AND N OF 22N SAT AND SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN...HOWEVER N-NE SWELLS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE SEE N OF 21N SAT THROUGH MON SUBSIDING TO 8 FT TUE AND TO 6 FT WED ACROSS REMAINDER OF TROPICAL N ATL ZONE EXPECT LIGHT ELY TRADES THROUGH WED. SEAS TO 8 FT HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPRESS TO S OF 11N BY WED. CARIBBEAN... TRADES CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY BRISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE SEA. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA AS WELL AS THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. IN ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION GRIDDED QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM LATE THIS MORNING INDICATED A WIND MAXIMUM OF 28 KT BETWEEN 74W-70W. IT APPEARS THAT NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST HAVE DECEASED SOME TO JUST BELOW 30 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DECREASE SUN THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS IN ADVANCE TO COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ZONE DURING THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE GULF SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WED. RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH LATE MON...THEN BECOME ALIGNED MORE NE TO SW TUE AND WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE NE PART LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE AND MOVES E OF THE GULF WED. E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT CURRENTLY EXIST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE W GULF AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NWW3 BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS UP TO 7 FT OVER STRAITS EARLY TONIGHT BUT WOULD EXPECT MAYBE 1 FOOT HIGHER FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO COUNTERFLOW E WINDS AGAINST THE GULFSTREAM CURRENT. EXPECT A WEAKENING OF E-SE WINDS TO 10-15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE E GULF...ALTHOUGH E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF DECREASING MON AND TUE THEN INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WED AS THE RIDGE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED NE-SE INTO THE GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE