000
AGXX40 KNHC 300550
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST THU MAR 30 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE PATTERN ALOFT TONIGHT SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE 
OVER THE MID ATLC AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR 
NRN ATLC BORDER TODAY. OVERALL FLOW S OF 25N IS WLY WITH A WEAK 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT AN 
ATLC RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR 30N62W AT 1025 MB. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR 20N55W TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW JUST N OF 
PUERTO RICO. 

DAY 1 FINDS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TO NEAR 30N70W WHILE THE WEAKER 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF WASHES OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLC WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE 
ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO NEAR 30N60W AT 1023 MB. GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 25 
KT OVER THE CARIB DAY 1 WITH SE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF TO 20 KT.

THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT DAY 2 AS IT MOVES TO 27N55W. 
SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS TO 
WRN CUBA WHILE A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WEAKENS. A POLAR HIGH 
CENTERED N OF THE AREA WILL RIDGE SW TO THE NRN GULF DAY 2 WITH 
BRISK NE WINDS W OF 60W S OF 27N. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE 
AND GULF WINDS SE TO 20 KT. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

WEAK UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM NEAR 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS TO THE NW CARIB. UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS DAY 3 OVER 
THE GULF. THE POLAR HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 33N62W AT 1026 MB WITH A 
RIDGE BACK TO THE NRN GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 
GULF WINDS DECREASE SOME TO 10 TO 15 KT DAY 3. ATLC WINDS S OF 
25N W OF 55W WILL BE BRISK NE TO E 20 KT. 

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE ATLC WATERS DAY 
4 HELPING SUSTAIN A GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE SW ATLC INTO THE 
NRN CARIB. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF REMAINS STATIONARY. THE 
POLAR HIGH MOVES OFF TO NEAR 32N54W AT 1023 MB WITH AN AXIS BACK 
TO THE N GULF. ATLC WINDS DECREASE SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT. CARIB 
WINDS ABOUT THE SAME AND GULF WINDS SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT. 

DAY 5 FINDS THE GULF UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING THE 
OVERALL FLOW TO BECOME MORE WLY. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE 
SW ATLC AND N CARIB REMAINS BUT LESS WELL DEFINED DAY 5. ON THE 
SURFACE THE OLD POLAR HIGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD TO NEAR 33N40W 
WITH AN AXIS BACK ALONG 28N TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. ONLY MODERATE 
WINDS DAY 5 WILL BE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB OTHERWISE MOSTLY 
LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG