000 AGXX40 KNHC 281931 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE MAR 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME. SW N ATLC... TAIL END OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM NEAR THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NE TO 19N65W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO A WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 21N65W. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT REVEALED AN AREA OF N-NE 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT TO 25N BETWEEN 71W-62W MUCH LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...SHIP KIRK REPORTED NE WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 22N67.5W. WILL MENTION GUSTY WITH WINDS S OF 25N TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT INTENSITY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR 31N75W WITH A RIDGE TO 27N65W. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW OVER MUCH OF THE NW SECTION. OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES E HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND BUILDS S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH 3 GUIDANCE. A SECONDARY WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT SW WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. THEN HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL NOSE SW INTO THE AREA SAT FROM 30N75W TO 28N80W THEN SLIDE SE TO ALONG 28N65W TO 25N77W. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN PRECEDED BY 15-20 KT SW WINDS AND FOLLOWED BY 10-15 KT W-NW WINDS. SEAS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 8 FT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA SUN FROM 27N65W TO 25N75W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT W OF 90W AND S OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-87W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC MON...AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE W GULF THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI THEN DECREASE SAT AND SUN. OVER AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...E WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT THOUGHT AT LEAST SAT MORNING. LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS UP TO 6 FT OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE THU NIGHT TO EARLY FRI. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE BASE ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF ELY FLOW ACROSS THIS PART OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE W PART SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA MAINLY NEAR THE S AMERICA COAST. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SW PART AND NEAR THE COLOMBIAN THROUGH SUN WITH AREAL COVERAGE MINIMIZING SOME FRI THROUGH SUN. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DECREASE 15-20 KT WED THROUGH FRI AND 10-15 KT SAT AND SUN. 8-11 FT SEAS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 9 FT BY SUN. COLD FRONT FROM 21N55W W TO 21N60W THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT W TO A NEWLY FORMED WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 21N65W. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO THE NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM 20N55W TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 21N65W WED THEN DISSIPATE THU AND FRI AS THE LOW TRACKS ENE TO NEAR 21N63W FRI AND TO NEAR 21N61W SAT. RIGHT DON'T ANTICIPATE WINDS HIGHER THAN 20-25 KT NEAR THE LOW ALTHOUGH AND SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CAN KICK WINDS UP TO 30 KT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TRADES WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT THROUGH THU DECEASING SOME OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FRI WITH SEAS ABOUT 4-7 FT. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...HIGHEST E WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY S OF 15N IN THE 15-20 KT WITH 6-8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE