000
AGXX40 KNHC 210622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
100 AM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ACTIVE AND WINDY EARLY SPRING PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SE LOUISIANA TO N 
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ITS SEWD PUSH TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT 
WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS THIS 
EVENING. 

FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY LATE WED/THU ALONG 
25N/26N ACROSS THE ATLC AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE GULF. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING 
ACROSS TEXAS IS FORECAST TO INITIATE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG 
THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THU. MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK GIVEN THAT IT IS 
STILL ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AWAY. LOW ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY 
FRI. AT THIS POINT THE LOW DEEPS AS IT MOVES ENE TOWARD BERMUDA. 
STRONG TRAILING FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA. 

GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS AROUND 20 KT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND 
FRONT. WINDS TO REMAIN NE ABOUT 20 KT BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED 
NIGHT. AS LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP...WINDS TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS INCREASE AREA WIDE BEHIND THE 
FRONT LATE THU/THU NIGHT. GFS INDICATES A QUICK SHOT OF GALES IS 
POSSIBLE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. 
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TOO LOW ON WINDS OVER GULF BEHIND FRONT. 
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND MAKE DECISION ABOUT MENTIONING GALES. 
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE FRI NIGHT/SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER 
AREA.
 
SW N ATLC...RIDGE TO RETREAT QUICKLY SEWD AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY. 
WINDS INCREASE N OF 26N LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. 20-25 KT FORECAST 
ACROSS THE N PART...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KT ALONG 31N. NOT MUCH WIND 
BEHIND THIS FRONT. WINDS TO STAY LIGHTER OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AREA WIDE THU...THEN 
INCREASE AS LOW DEVELOPS/MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI. WINDS 
GENERALLY 20-25 KT NEAR LOW...THEN DECREASING LATER SAT.

CARIBBEAN...STRONG SELY WINDS FORECAST ALONG THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TODAY...THEN DECREASING SOME WED. WINDS TO BECOME 
FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT 
ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION SAT WITH 20-25 KT NLY WINDS NEAR THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. TYPICAL TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN 
WILL DECREASE FRI AS RIDGE DISSIPATES OVER W ATLC. TRADES LIKELY 
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN