000 AGXX40 KNHC 200741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST MON MAR 20 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS MID-WEST WILL CARRY HEALTHY COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT OVER COASTAL STATES MOVES N OF AREA. STRONG S TO SW WINDS VEER NW TO N THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING NE WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS ERN STATES. REINFORCING SURGE THU WILL SPREAD STRONG N TO NE THROUGH MOST OF BASIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS...NOGAPS AND ECM SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHEST WIND AND SEAS LATE FRI ACROSS SW CORNER OF GULF WHILE NAM REMAINS SHIER. FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS STRONGER SCENARIOS LATE IN LATE PERIODS. ATLANTIC... RIDGE BUILD SEWD OFF SE U.S. COAST TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT NOW FROM 24N65W 23N70W 23N75W. STRONG NW N OF 27N E OF 67W QUICKLY DIMINISH AS 1019 MB HIGH PRES SETTLES IN PLACE NEAR 25N67W TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NW CORNER OF SW N ATLC EARLY TUE INCREASING SW FLOW TO 25 KT AND SPREADING E N OF 27N. SW FLOW INCREASES TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH...LIKELY FULL GALE FORCE N OF AREA...WED AND WED NIGHT DIMINISHING THU AND FRI. HIGH PRES LIGHTENS WINDS THU BUT NEW REINFORCING SURGE WITH POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF N FLORIDA COAST EARLY FRI COULD BRING WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT AGAIN ON FRI. NOGAPS SUPPORTS GFS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT DIFFER IN THE SLOWER TIMING...FORMING LOW PRES 1010 MB BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST INDICATES WINDS INCREASE LATE IN PERIOD BUT HOLD SHORT ON SPEED AND SEA HEIGHTS TILL BETTER PICTURE ON CYCLOGENESIS. CARIBBEAN... CARIBBEAN MAINTAINS STRONG EASTERLIES S OF 15N AND THE USUAL STRONGER WINDS AROUND COLOMBIAN COAST. STRONGER THAN NORMAL SE FLOW ACROSS YUCATAN AS WARM FRONT OVER COASTAL STATES ATTRACT AIRMASS FROM NWRN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW SMOOTH ACROSS BASIN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES