000 AGXX40 KNHC 160609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 109 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRUDGE ACROSS THE SW ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE...EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 25N70W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/W CUBA REGION. THE FRONT HAS BEGUN TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NE TOWARDS ERN NEWFOUNDLAND. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED NW WINDS 20-25 KT EXTENDING W OF THE FRONT TO 70W AND A NARROW BAND OF SW 20-25 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF 30 KT ESPECIALLY IN ISOLATED CONVECTION. HIGH PRES IS ALREADY MOVING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AND WINDS ARE DYING DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT W OF 75W. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 11-12 FT IN NWLY SWELL ALONG 31N E OF 70W AND SHOULD LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY FRI WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE COAST LATE FRI. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY (SW 20-25 KT) WITH WINDS BARELY REACHING 20 KT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA SUN BUT LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON...LIKELY INCREASING SLY FLOW JUST OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST. CARIBBEAN... MODERATE TRADES STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND AREAS OF TROPICAL ATLC S OF BARBADOS. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT IMAGERY AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP DGCT AT 0300 UTC STILL INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...SO WORDING IN CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TO ALTER THE EXPECTED WINDS/SEAS IN THIS AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. OVERALL... PERSISTENT NE/E TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS. NELY SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 FT S OF 12N. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 4-6 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A 7-8 FT NWLY SWELL TRAIN WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE N PART OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG THE N GULF COAST. MAIN HIGH PRES CENTER IS MOVING E OF FLORIDA AND RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE NW GULF. QUIKSCAT SHOWS SELY WINDS 15-20 KT E OF TEXAS COAST BUT THESE SHOULD WEAKEN AGAIN LATER TODAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT. FRONT JUST BRUSHES NRN OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRI AND WINDS ALREADY TURN ELY 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING. SELY FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT AND SUN...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN SLY SWELL. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON MON BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAKER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAN AHEAD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG