000 AGXX40 KNHC 040619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST SAT MAR 04 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES CURRENTLY BUILDING SWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES WILL PRODUCE MODERATE NE TO E FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES OVER THE N GULF. WINDS DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE E GULF SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS. ENHANCED ELY FLOW THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS COMPRISED OF LOW PERIOD AND STEEP WAVES. PLAN TO GO ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE IN THIS LOCATION GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THE MODEL. THE HIGH SHIFTS E TUE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST. SW N ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY EXITING THE FAR SE CORNER SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT EARLY TODAY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. NW SWELL TO 11 FT WILL AFFECT THE NE PART OF THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUN. THE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF MON AND TUE WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE MON AND EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE TUE. THE LATEST GFS RUN DEPICTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA WED WITH WINDS DROPPING QUICKLY FROM W TO E. STILL...LARGE NW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATING MAX VALUES OF 20 FT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT REMAINING N OF AREA BUT WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...ELY TRADES WILL DROP OVER ALL ZONES UNTIL LATE SUN AND MON WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER S AND MAY AFFECT THE NW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...CURRENT ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART SAT NIGHT BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS PASS TO THE N OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHUNT THE RIDGE E OF AREA PRODUCING LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES OVER THE N PART OF AREA. SOME INCREASE IN NLY SWELL MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT NO MORE THAN 8 OR 9 FT ANTICIPATED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ATLANTIC RIDGE SETS BACK UP AGAIN MON AND TUE WITH TRADES INCREASING SLIGHTLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA WED BUT AGAIN DOES LITTLE MORE THAN WEAKEN THE RIDGE THUS PRODUCING LOWER THAN NORMAL TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME