000
AGXX40 KNHC 090619
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM EST TUE NOV 09 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ALONG 32N67W 20N70W 10N82W WITH 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
W...AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT STATIONARY 
FRONT IS STILL EVIDENT FROM 30N72W TO 24N80W...BUT EXPECT THIS 
BOUNDARY TO BE OVERRUN BY NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY 
ALONG 32N71W 29N81W 28N93W.

A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS NOTED ALONG CARIBBEAN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL 
TROUGH...BUT OUR 00Z ANALYSIS HAS SINGLE LOW PRES NEAR 12N77W 
1006 MB. WILL MOVE THIS LOW NE ALONG TROUGH TO NEAR 17N70W IN 24 
HOURS...WITH BROAD AREA LOW PRES CONTINUING IN SW CARIBBEAN AS 
WELL. GOOD AREA OF NLY 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED W OF THIS TROUGH 
WITH 20-25 KT VICINITY OF LOW PRES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
SE ACROSS SW ATLC WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY 20-30 KT WINDS...AND 
NEAR GALE IMMEDIATELY W OF FRONT. 

BY 48 HOURS THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH FRONTAL TROUGH WITH NE 
WINDS W OF THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO BLEED SW ACROSS CUBA INTO NW 
AND LATER SW CARIBBEAN REINFORCING CURRENT WINDS. PLENTY OF 
GRADIENT NW OF THE FRONT...BUT DO  NOT EXPECT GALE WINDS TILL 
ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THESE MIGHT BE OVER ATLC WATERS JUST E OF 
65W... AS WAS MY THINKING 24 HOURS AGO. BUT I SHOULD MENTION 
THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW TRACKING THE LOW PRES MORE NLY BEYOND 
DAY 3 THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO.

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE 
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NW WATERS WITH WINDS W GULF BECOME SLY IN 
RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORT WAVE. WILL PROG A WARM FRONT SHIFT NE 
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIP.  NEXT COLD FRONT 
OVER TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS THU MORNING...CENTRAL GULF FRI 
MORNING...THEN ALONG LINE 31N75W 26N80W 22N95W SAT MORNING. 
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT 
OVER GULF...IN FACT THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS SW GULF LATE IN 
WEEKEND. BUT SW ATLC WILL SEE ANOTHER NE 20-30 KT EVENT 
ACCOMPANIED BY BEACH ERODING SEAS...AND LIKELY WILL EFFECT THE 
NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON