000 AGXX40 KNHC 021742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST TUE NOV 02 2004 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE N COAST OF MEXICO. BUOYS SHOWING THE SLY WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STARTING TO DECREASE AND THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GFS...ETA AND NOW EVEN THE NOGAPS BRING A MARGINAL AND VERY BRIEF GALE TO THE SW GULF WED. SINCE THE MODELS BRING THE WIND TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY PUT OUT A GALE WARNING FOR THE SMALL AREA CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THU AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RE-ENFORCING THE STRONG WIND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE VERY STRONG WITH THE HIGH AND BRING THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD FOR A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT BY FRI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN FRI. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO DO THIS...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING GALE FOR FRI...AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS DO. THE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT BECOMING LIGHT ON SUN. ATLC RIDGE WILL KEEP BRISK ELY TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN DECREASE FRI AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS SAT AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE THU AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE W ATLC. OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT UNTIL THE HIGH WEAKENS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA SUN...BUT SOME LARGE SWELL WILL LINGER IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA...N OF 27N E OF 73W/74W. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF 95W ZONE GMZ082 WED. $$ FORECASTER DGS