000
AGXX40 KNHC 100524
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MID LEVEL 500 MB HIGH CELL (590 HT) OFF SE COAST LAST NIGHT 
SHIFTS NE AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY (593 HT) TONIGHT. MID LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS W OVER N GULF. AT SURFACE ATLC RIDGE OVER MID 
OCEAN. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N55W TO 20N60W UNDERNEATH UPPER 
TROUGH. WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH OVER NE GULF ACROSS FL. HRCN IVAN 
IN CENTRAL CARIB DAY 1 MOVING WNW 11 KT. MAIN WIND/SEA PROBLEMS 
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN OTHERWISE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE.

MRF MODEL PERSISTS IN DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN MID LEVELS OVER SE 
DAY 2. MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BETWEEN 30N AND 35N. MID LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN DAY 2 NEAR 55W. HRCN IVAN FORECAST TO TURN 
MORE NWLY DAY 2 APPROACHING CAYMAN ISL. WINDS/SEAS OVER GULF AND 
ATLC W OF 70W INCREASING DAY 2. ATLC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MID 
OCEAN RIDGING SW TO 24N65W.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

MRF MODEL CONSISTENT FROM LAST NIGHT IN STRENGTHENING MID LAT 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THEN LIFTING IT OUT DAY 3. NOT QUITE SO MUCH 
AMPLITUDE AS LAST NIGHT THOUGH. MODEL DOES SHOW TROUGH 
AFFECTIVELY SEPARATING MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 75W AND 95W. THIS 
WILL ALLOW IVAN TO TRACK MORE NLY DAY 3. WINDS AND SEAS BETWEEN 
70W AND 90W AFFECTED BY HRCN..OTHERWISE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE WEAK.

DAY 4 FINDS MID LAT SHORTWAVE MOVING E OF NEW ENGLAND WITH 
WEAKNESS IN MID LEVELS OFF SE COAST. OFFICIAL IVAN FORECAST HAS 
STORM TRACKING NORTHWARD DAY 4. GFS MODEL WANTS STORM TO TRACK 
MORE NELY ACROSS FL FOLLOWING WEAKNESS.  MAIN WIND/SEA PROBLEMS 
REMAIN BETWEEN 70W AND 90W DAY 4. NO PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE.

MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER ATLC E OF 70W WITH A GENERAL 
WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD W OF 70W DAY 5. IVAN FORECAST TO 
TRACK INLAND OVER SE US DAY 5. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN 
WESTERLIES FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL US DAY 5 WILL PROBABLY 
PICK UP IVAN AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRENCHER FOR THE EASTERN US.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS STILL A PROBLEM BETWEEN 70W AND 90W DAY 
5 BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE. WEAK GRADIENT OVER REMAINDER OF 
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS.


WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY.

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
HURRICANE WARNING FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W...AMZ082 
AND AMZ086. TROPICAL STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE N OF 13N BETWEEN 
70W AND 80W...AMZ086...AMZ084 AND AMZ082.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

$$
FORECASTER RRG